New Mexico vs Air Force prediction and analysis
Overview of the Matchup
The New Mexico Lobos travel to face the Air Force Falcons in a Mountain West Conference clash for Week 13. Both teams bring contrasting strengths and weaknesses, setting the stage for a tactical battle. While New Mexico leans on a solid defensive front against the run, Air Force boasts a powerful rushing attack that ranks among the best nationally.
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Key Player Highlights
- Liam Szarka of New Mexico has been a standout, ranking in the top 10 nationally for touchdowns this season with 13 scores, making him a constant scoring threat.
- Damon Bankston
Statistical Matchups
Air Force has an elite rushing attack, averaging 271.1 yards per game, which is third best in the FBS. Their ability to grind out yards on the ground creates strategic advantages and time of possession control.
Conversely, New Mexico’s defense ranks 17th nationally in rushing yards allowed per game at 105.8, indicating a solid front to slow down Air Force’s potent run game.
In pass defense, Air Force ranks poorly at 136th nationally by allowing 20.5 opponent points per game in the second half, suggesting fatigue or depth issues late in games. New Mexico’s pass defense, meanwhile, is less stout, ranking 118th by yards allowed, potentially exposing vulnerabilities against Air Force’s passing attempts.
Team Trends and Implications
Air Force’s ability to dominate on the ground will likely be the deciding factor. Yet, New Mexico’s defensive resilience against the run could force Air Force to pass more often than usual, which might level the playing field given Air Force’s susceptibility in pass defense.
Special teams play could also influence momentum, especially with Bankston’s return prowess.
Prediction Summary
Given the strength of Air Force’s rushing offense and New Mexico’s ability to limit rushing yardage, the game will hinge on which team can better exploit the opponent’s defensive weaknesses. Air Force’s overall rushing dominance and home-field advantage are slight edges, but New Mexico’s scoring ability via Liam Szarka keeps this matchup competitive.
Expect a physical, run-heavy game with moderate scoring. Air Force should control the clock and manage a narrow victory unless New Mexico can capitalize on passing opportunities and special teams plays.
Final Prediction
Air Force Falcons to win by a close margin, 24-20.
