New Mexico State vs Tennessee prediction and analysis

Matchup Overview

This Week 12 showdown features the Tennessee Volunteers hosting the New Mexico State Aggies at Neyland Stadium. Tennessee enters as the heavy favorite, riding a strong home-field advantage and a history of dominance in similar matchups. The Aggies, meanwhile, are looking to overturn a recent skid, but face considerable challenges on both sides of the ball.

Recommended Sports Betting Sites

Key Factors and Trends

• Tennessee’s Home Dominance: The Volunteers have won their last 23 games against non-AP-ranked opponents at Neyland Stadium, highlighting their superiority in such matchups.
• Spread Performance: Tennessee has covered the spread in six of their last seven non-conference home games, though they have struggled to cover recently against the spread, failing in five of their last six games overall. Conversely, New Mexico State has a good recent road record in November, covering the spread in five of their last six away games.
• First Quarter and Half Strength: Tennessee excels early, having won the first quarter in 21 of their last 23 home non-conference games and the first half in 13 consecutive such contests. New Mexico State has had some success in opening halves as well, winning the first half in each of their last three non-conference games.
• Offensive and Defensive Rankings: Tennessee leads the FBS in points per game in the first quarter (14.6) and first half (25.3), signaling a strong start game plan. The Aggies struggle considerably on the ground, ranking 136th in rushing yards per game (69.0), and their scoring in the first quarter is among the lowest nationally (2.1 points per game).
• Player Matchups: New Mexico State’s quarterback Joey Aguilar is notable, ranking 6th nationally in passing yards (2737), while receiver Donovan Faupel leads Conference USA in receiving touchdowns (tied at 5), indicating potential for big plays. However, Tennessee’s overall team strength and depth should mitigate these threats.
• Scoring Trends: Tennessee’s previous eight non-conference games have gone over the total points line, while four of New Mexico State’s last five games have gone under the total, suggesting a likely higher scoring environment due to Tennessee’s offensive firepower.

Prediction Summary

Considering Tennessee‘s dominant home record, offensive explosiveness, and historical performance against non-ranked teams, they are expected to control this game from the outset. New Mexico State’s recent struggles and limited rushing attack make it difficult to foresee an upset, despite their ability to cover spreads on the road.

Tennessee’s strong start should put the game out of reach early, with their depth and balanced attack overwhelming the Aggies’ defense. Expect the Volunteers to secure a comfortable victory at Neyland Stadium, continuing their streak of wins over comparable opponents.

Final Prediction

Tennessee Volunteers to win by 28+ points.