Nevada vs Wyoming prediction and analysis

Matchup Overview

This Week 13 Mountain West showdown pits the Nevada Wolf Pack against the Wyoming Cowboys, two teams striving to end disappointing streaks and gain momentum as the season winds down. Nevada looks to build off snapping an eight-game losing streak, whereas Wyoming aims to rebound from back-to-back defeats on home turf.

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Key Betting Trends and Team Form

• Nevada’s Road Struggles: The Wolf Pack have lost their last 10 road games, highlighting ongoing challenges playing away from Mackay Stadium.
• Wyoming’s Home Dominance: The Cowboys have won each of their last five home contests and have a strong record covering the spread in November, going 7-1 in their last eight November home games.
• Against the Spread Performance: Nevada has struggled to cover the spread in recent November games against non-ranked teams, failing in 4 of 5 attempts. Wyoming has similarly been inconsistent, failing to cover 3 of 4 Novembers against non-ranked opponents.
• First Half Trends: Nevada has fallen behind at halftime in 7 of its last 8 conference games, which could be crucial vs. a Wyoming team that tends to start strong at home.
• Scoring Patterns: Nevada’s games as an underdog in November against unranked teams have all gone OVER the total points line, while Wyoming’s conference games are typically defensive battles, with 7 of their last 8 going UNDER the total points line.

Player and Team Stats to Watch

• Samuel Harris (Nevada): An explosive rusher, Harris is one of a rare group of FBS players with 500+ yards on fewer than 100 carries, posing a big threat for Wyoming’s defense.
• Caleb Ramseur (Wyoming): A versatile playmaker with 3+ rushing and receiving touchdowns, Ramseur adds a dynamic element to the Cowboys’ offense.
• Offensive Efficiency: Wyoming ranks 133rd in second quarter scoring (3.7 points on average), signaling potential offensive stagnation early in games.
• Red Zone Efficiency: Wyoming’s red zone defense is solid, allowing scores only 31% of the time, which aligns closely with Nevada’s slightly lower red zone efficiency on offense.
• Quarter One Scoring: Both teams produce low Q1 scoring totals, with Nevada specifically ranking near the bottom (130th) nationally.

Analytical Prediction Summary

Wyoming’s home-field advantage and recent dominance at War Memorial Stadium position them as favorites despite their recent November shortcomings. The contrasting scoring trends suggest a tactical battle: Nevada’s games lean towards high scoring runs (over the total), while Wyoming’s defense aims to keep opponents in check and games low scoring.

The Wolf Pack’s persistent issues in road games and difficulty matching the Cowboys’ defensive prowess and home energy could lead to another close defeat. However, Samuel Harris’s explosive rushing capability might keep Nevada competitive and push the total points upward.

Expect a defensive, low-scoring game dominated by Wyoming early on, with Nevada fighting hard in the second half but ultimately falling short in a tight contest.

Final Prediction

Wyoming Cowboys to win by 7 points.