Navy vs Memphis prediction and analysis
Team Overview and Recent Form
On Thursday, November 27th, the Navy Midshipmen will visit Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium in Memphis, Tennessee, to face the Memphis Tigers in a pivotal American Athletic Conference showdown. Both teams come into this late-season matchup with records reflecting strong offensive capabilities but defensive vulnerabilities, setting the stage for a potentially high-scoring and competitive game.
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Navy Midshipmen Analysis
- Current record: 8-2 overall, 6-1 in conference.
- Last game: Narrow 41-38 victory over South Florida, marked by a commanding halftime lead and a strong fourth quarter finish.
- Offense: Navy relies heavily on its rushing attack, averaging over 300 yards on the ground per game with quarterback Blake Horvath leading with nearly 1,000 rushing yards and 13 rushing touchdowns this season. Passing remains limited but efficient with roughly 140 yards per game.
- Defense: Defense has struggled recently, allowing at least 31 points in each of their last five contests, which is a potential concern against a potent Memphis offense.
- Recent trends: Navy has lost two of three games before their recent win but remains tied for first in the AAC standings. They also possess a strong record against conference opponents and have shown resilience as underdogs in November games.
Memphis Tigers Analysis
- Current record: 8-3 overall, 4-3 in conference.
- Last game: Close 31-27 home loss to East Carolina, after leading at halftime but faltering in the second half.
- Offense: Balanced attack averaging 36.2 points per game, with a higher emphasis on passing (~240 yards per game) compared to Navy, led by Brendon Lewis and top receiver Cortez Braham Jr.
- Defense: Has allowed 22 points per game on average but has shown difficulty containing opponents in the second half, surrendering 21 points in the final two quarters against East Carolina.
- Home advantage and trends: Memphis boasts a strong home record against non-ranked teams on Thursdays, with success covering the spread. The Tigers have, however, lost three of their last five games overall.
Key Factors and Matchup Insights
The game presents a clash between Navy’s elite rushing offense and a Memphis defense that has allowed high scoring in recent games. Conversely, Memphis’ more balanced and prolific offense faces a Navy defense that ranks near the bottom nationally in stopping passing yards and fourth-down conversions.
Special teams and late-game execution could be pivotal. Memphis ranks among the best in limiting fourth-quarter scoring, whereas Navy’s defense has struggled to close out games. Offensively, Navy’s ground dominance may control the clock, but Memphis’ air attack might exploit Navy’s secondary.
From a betting perspective, Navy has been inconsistent against the spread lately, while Memphis has had more success covering at home. Betting trends suggest a higher scoring affair based on the teams’ recent over/under stats.
Prediction Summary
Despite the home advantage and Memphis’s historical success in Thursday night non-AP games, Navy’s potent rushing attack and motivation to stay atop the conference standings give them an edge. However, both teams’ defensive shortcomings point to a shootout.
Expect Navy to remain competitive with their ground game and capitalize on critical turnovers. Memphis will leverage their balanced offense to keep the pressure on, but Navy’s experience late in the season and ability to execute in close games should help them pull through.
Final Prediction
Navy narrowly outlasts Memphis in a high-scoring contest, 38-34. The over is a strong play in this game.
