Missouri State vs Middle Tennessee prediction and analysis

Missouri State Bears vs Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders: Week 7 Preview

On October 8, 2025, the Missouri State Bears (2-3) will face the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (1-4) in what is shaping up to be an intriguing matchup. The game is scheduled for a 7:30 PM EDT kickoff. Middle Tennessee enters as slight favorites with a modest 2.5-point spread, and the over/under is set at 51.5 points. This preview will analyze both teams’ strengths, key players, and trends to provide a well-rounded prediction.

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Team Overviews and Key Stats

• Missouri State Bears: Currently holding a 2-3 record, Missouri State is led offensively by Tristian Gardner, who tops the team with two touchdowns this season. Despite some offensive challenges, they possess playmakers capable of making pivotal plays. However, the Bears have struggled in the second quarter, posting an average point differential of -6.4, and have also been anemic late in the game, ranking T128th in points per game in the fourth quarter with just 2.6 points.
• Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders: Sitting at 1-4, the Blue Raiders have had difficulties all season but boast a standout receiver in Nahzae Cox, who leads Conference USA with an impressive 40 targets heading into Week 7. Middle Tennessee’s defense has been porous early in games, allowing an average of 11.2 points per first quarter—ranking 130th nationally. Additionally, their 4th down conversion rate is weak at just 27.3%, tied for 130th nationally, pointing to difficulties sustaining drives.

Matchup Analysis

This game pits two teams struggling to gain momentum this season. Missouri State’s offensive production has been inconsistent, particularly in key moments such as the second and fourth quarters. Meanwhile, Middle Tennessee’s defense struggles early but can rely on playmakers like Nahzae Cox to shift momentum. The Bears’ mediocre scoring late in games may give Middle Tennessee a chance to capitalize if they manage to close the game strong.

The spread of Middle Tennessee +2.5 reflects the close nature of this contest. Both teams have underperformed, but Missouri State appears to have a slight edge due to their better overall record and the potential to exploit the Blue Raiders’ weaker defensive marks early on.

Prediction Summary

Expect a competitive, low-scoring affair where Missouri State’s offense struggles to find rhythm but manages enough to eke out a close victory. Middle Tennessee’s inability to convert on crucial fourth downs and their early defensive lapses could be exploited. The Bears should control the game in the middle quarters despite their late-game scoring drought.

Final Prediction

Missouri State Bears to win narrowly, covering the spread (Missouri State -2.5)