Mississippi State vs Missouri prediction and analysis

Mississippi State vs Missouri: Game Preview

The Mississippi State Bulldogs travel to face the Missouri Tigers in an intriguing Southeastern Conference showdown. Both teams have shown flashes of strength this season, creating an engaging battle with implications for their positioning late in the schedule.

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Mississippi State Bulldogs Analysis

• Rushing Attack: Mississippi State boasts a solid ground game, averaging 156.8 rushing yards per game. Fluff Bothwell has been the standout feature back with 534 yards and six touchdowns, providing consistent offensive production.
• Defensive Profile: Defensively, the Bulldogs allow 26.3 points and nearly 389 yards per contest. Team leaders such as Jahron Manning (70 tackles) and Brylan Lanier (3 interceptions) anchor a defense that can make critical plays but has shown vulnerability against SEC offenses.
• Road Struggles: Notably, Mississippi State has lost eight of its last nine road games within conference play, a trend that raises concerns about their ability to win at Missouri’s home turf.
• Strong 1st Quarter Performance: The Bulldogs have excelled in first quarters this season, outscoring opponents by an average of 6.4 points, signaling their ability to start fast and set the tone early.
• Limited Time of Possession: Averaging just 27:17 of possession per game (ranked 127th nationally) indicates they tend to play fast-paced or get outpaced, which could influence game control.

Missouri Tigers Analysis

• Home Field Advantage: Missouri is dominant at Faurot Field against non-ranked teams, riding a 17-game winning streak, which provides a psychological and tactical edge.
• Offensive Efficiency: The Tigers rank seventh nationally in fourth-down conversion percentage (75.0%) and eighth in rushing yards per game (232.3), asserting a potent and persistent offense.
• Key Players: Ahmad Hardy’s impressive rushing performance (over 1,000 yards with fewer than 200 attempts) and Brenen Thompson’s reception yardage (808, tied for first in the SEC) highlight a dual-threat offense capable of challenging Mississippi State’s defense.
• Recent Form: Missouri has struggled somewhat in conference games of late, losing three of their last four, though their ability to cover in November games on home turf has been solid.
• Spread Trends: They have failed to cover the spread in their last four games at home despite historical success, indicating a possible value in betting against them.

Key Matchup Factors

• Mississippi State’s ability to rush effectively and start fast could challenge Missouri’s defense early, but their poor road record within the SEC is a hurdle.
• Missouri’s efficiency on fourth downs and robust rushing attack present a sustained threat to the Bulldogs’ middle defense.
• The trend of over in November games for both teams suggests a high-scoring affair.
• Missouri’s dominance at Faurot Field vs Mississippi State’s struggles on the road produces a dynamic contrast.

Prediction Summary

Despite Mississippi State’s offensive capabilities and impressive first-quarter performances, Missouri’s home field advantage and efficient offense should keep them competitive. However, given Missouri’s recent failure to cover and Mississippi State’s tendency to cover as a road dog in November, this game is primed to be tightly contested and potentially decided by a small margin.

Final Prediction: Mississippi State to keep this game close and cover the spread in what should be a high-scoring contest. Expect a finish within one possession, with a slight edge to Missouri in the win column due to home advantage.