Mississippi State vs Missouri prediction and analysis

Mississippi State vs Missouri: Game Preview and Key Insights

This Week 12 SEC showdown features the Mississippi State Bulldogs visiting the Missouri Tigers at Faurot Field. Both teams come with contrasting trends and statistical profiles, setting the stage for a competitive game that could hinge on both offensive execution and situational performance.

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Offensive and Defensive Matchups

• Mississippi State Bulldogs: Their ground game remains a strength, averaging 156.8 rushing yards per game. Ahmad Hardy is a standout back, notable for surpassing 1,000 rushing yards on relatively few attempts, showcasing efficiency. Defensively, MSU concedes 26.3 points and nearly 389 yards per contest, with linebacker Jahron Manning leading in tackles and secondary players like Brylan Lanier making impactful plays with interceptions.
• Missouri Tigers: Missouri boasts a powerful rushing attack averaging 232.3 yards per game, ranking them 8th nationally. Their offense is supported by top-tier performances on critical downs, converting 75% of 4th downs, among the best in the country. Defensively, while not detailed here, Missouri has shown some vulnerability given their recent conference losses.

Trends and Historical Factors

• Missouri has been dominant at home against non-AP-ranked teams, winning 17 straight such matchups at Faurot Field.
• Mississippi State’s recent struggles on the road in SEC contests are evident, having lost eight of their last nine away conference games.
• Missouri has failed to cover the spread in their last four home games, providing a possible betting angle for value on the visitors.
• Mississippi State has shown resilience as a road underdog in November, covering in eight of their last nine such games, including recent outings.
• Scoring trends suggest a strong likelihood for a high-scoring game, with recent November matchups for both teams frequently surpassing total points lines.

Additional Statistical Considerations

• Mississippi State is one of the top teams nationally with a +6.4 point differential in the first quarter, indicative of strong starts.
• However, the Bulldogs rank near the bottom (127th) in time of possession, suggesting potential issues in sustaining drives.
• Missouri’s rushing proficiency and 4th down conversion rate indicate an aggressive and effective offensive approach that can control the game tempo.

Prediction Summary

Considering Missouri’s home dominance against comparable competition, their robust rushing attack, and superior 4th down conversion efficiency, the Tigers hold a home-field advantage. Yet, Mississippi State’s efficiency in the running game with Ahmad Hardy, their strong first-quarter performances, and historical ability to cover as road underdogs in November cannot be overlooked.

This game will likely be competitive, with Missouri looking to exploit their home comfort and running prowess, while Mississippi State aims to disrupt early and keep pace offensively. The trends favor a higher scoring affair, supported by both teams’ recent November performances in terms of totals.

Final Prediction: Missouri to win a close contest, but Mississippi State covers the spread as a resilient road underdog. Expect the game to go over the total points line.