Middle Tennessee vs New Mexico State prediction and analysis
Team Overviews
The Week 14 faceoff between the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders and the New Mexico State Aggies presents an intriguing clash of two teams grappling with inconsistent performances this season. Middle Tennessee continues to struggle in road contests, especially within their conference, while New Mexico State has had mixed results but showcases strong recent home resilience.
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Key Betting Trends
- Middle Tennessee’s road woes: The Blue Raiders have lost 10 of their past 11 road games against conference opponents, and they have failed to cover the spread in six of their last seven November road games.
- New Mexico State’s home advantage: The Aggies have covered the spread in six of their last seven home games in November and have a remarkable history of underdog success at Aggie Memorial Stadium, covering in seven of their last eight games as an underdog there.
- Spread and Favorite Trends: New Mexico State has struggled to cover when favored, failing to cover in each of their last four games as a favorite.
- Scoring Lines: New Mexico State’s recent home games have largely gone UNDER the total points line, while Middle Tennessee’s November games have mostly gone OVER, indicating a difference in game tempo and defensive effectiveness.
Player Impact and Team Performance
- Defensive Playmakers: Middle Tennessee’s Bernock Iya is tied for 10th in FBS with 4 interceptions, highlighting the Blue Raiders’ playmaking potential in the secondary.
- Offensive Versatility: Jekail Middlebrook of Middle Tennessee has demonstrated dual-threat capabilities with at least 3 rushing and 3 receiving touchdowns, a rare achievement among FBS players.
- Rushing Struggles: Both teams rank near the bottom nationally in rushing yards per game, with New Mexico State at 135th (76.5 yards) and Middle Tennessee at 130th (97 yards), meaning ground attack might not be a decisive factor.
- Late-Game Defensive Concerns: Middle Tennessee has allowed a high number of points in the fourth quarter this season, ranking 133rd in opponent Q4 points per game (10.1), which may prove costly.
- Comeback Ability: New Mexico State showed resilience by overturning a 21-point deficit against UTEP earlier this season, illustrating potential for momentum swings.
Prediction Summary
Considering the Blue Raiders’ struggles on the road and New Mexico State’s strong November home performances against the spread, plus the Aggies’ ability to capitalize on their home field, the advantage appears to tilt slightly towards New Mexico State. However, Middle Tennessee’s playmakers and their occasional high-scoring November games suggest this could be a competitive matchup.
Expect a tightly contested game with moderate scoring, leaning towards an under total points outcome, reflecting New Mexico State’s history and defensive emphasis at home. Given Middle Tennessee’s difficulties covering spreads on the road and New Mexico State’s recent ability to cover as an underdog, the Aggies hold a favorable betting edge.
Final Prediction
New Mexico State Aggies to win and cover the spread at home in a close contest.
