Michigan State vs USC prediction and analysis

Matchup Overview

The Michigan State Spartans (3-0) travel to face the undefeated USC Trojans (3-0) on September 20, 2025, at 11:00 PM EDT. USC, favored by 17.5 points with an over/under of 56.5, looks to maintain its perfect home record while Michigan State aims to spring a road upset in a pivotal Week 4 showdown.

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Key Factors Impacting the Game

• Current Form: Both teams enter undefeated, but USC boasts a dominant offense averaging 604 yards per game, ranking first in FBS. Their ability to sustain drives is further emphasized by their perfect 100% conversion rate on 4th downs this season.
• Betting and Historical Trends: USC has an impressive 12-game winning streak in September against non-AP-ranked opponents and has covered the spread in their last seven games as favorites in California. Conversely, Michigan State has struggled against AP-ranked teams, having lost their last eight games and failing to cover the spread in those contests. However, the Spartans have found some success as road underdogs, winning five of their last seven such openers and consistently covering the spread on the road over their previous five games.
• Defensive Impact: Michigan State’s Bishop Fitzgerald, tied for first nationally with three interceptions, could disrupt USC’s high-powered passing attack. Meanwhile, Michael Masunas, with a perfect 100% catch rate, will be key in capitalizing on USC’s offensive opportunities.
• Game Style Expectation: Both teams have had recent games trending under the total points line, especially Michigan State in their last eight road games against ranked teams and USC in four straight conference matchups. This suggests a more controlled game pace rather than a shootout, despite USC’s prolific offense.
• Close Wins and Margin Pressure: Michigan State has also shown the ability to close out tight games at home, with the most wins by narrow margins in FBS this season, indicating resilience and competitiveness that could translate on the road.

Prediction Summary

With USC’s explosive offense and home-field advantage, they are positioned strongly to extend their unbeaten run. Their efficiency on critical downs and superior yardage gains give them the edge against a Spartans defense that has shown playmaking ability but is still vulnerable against top-tier teams.

Michigan State’s potential lies in their defensive playmakers who can create turnovers, possibly keeping the game closer than expected. Their recent success covering spreads as underdogs and ability to win close contests hint they won’t fold easily.

Given the significant spread, though, it’s reasonable to expect USC to win but perhaps by a slightly smaller margin than the 17.5 points offered by sportsbooks.

Final Prediction

USC to win, but Michigan State to cover the spread. Expect a final score near: USC 38, Michigan State 24.