Miami (OH) vs Wisconsin prediction and analysis

Matchup Overview

The Miami (OH) RedHawks visit the Wisconsin Badgers at Camp Randall Stadium on Thursday, August 28, 2025. Wisconsin is a heavy favorite at -17.5 with an over/under set at 39.5 points. Both teams enter this season opener with contrasting recent histories and squads undergoing important transitions.

Miami (OH) RedHawks: Potential and Challenges

Miami (OH) enters the game following a solid recent stretch with bowl appearances in four consecutive years and a combined 20 wins over the past two seasons under long-tenured coach Chuck Martin. The biggest offseason storyline for Miami (OH) is the arrival of quarterback Dequan Finn, a transfer from Toledo and Baylor, who carries a strong passing resume of 7,300 career yards and 66 touchdowns. This injection of talent at QB could finally unlock the RedHawks’ offense, which struggled through much of last season.

Though Miami has new skill-position transfers like Deion Colzie, Darion Williams, and Keith Reynolds, a significant overhaul of the offensive line and skill players means the offense could take some time to gel. Defensively, Miami returns four starters of a unit that was among the top-20 nationally last year, led notably by secondary standouts Silas Walters, Eli Blakey, and Luke Evans, along with linebacker Corban Hondru and pass rusher Adam Trick, all key to keeping Miami competitive.

Wisconsin Badgers: Rebuilding Tradition

Wisconsin had an underwhelming 2024 season with just five wins and missed bowl eligibility for the first time since 2001. Head coach Luke Fickell is entering his third year, aiming to restore the Badgers’ traditional forte in defense and the running game. The offense is adjusted to a run-heavy scheme under new coordinator Jeff Grimes, with hopes pinned on Maryland transfer quarterback Billy Edwards Jr., who threw for 2,800 yards and 15 touchdowns last season.

On defense, additions like Corey Walker from Western Michigan and potential star Ricardo Hallman in the secondary bolster an already experienced unit featuring linebackers Jake Chaney and Christian Alliegro. Wisconsin’s strong defensive identity and the running game focus align with a familiar style though execution will be key to recapturing past success.

Key Matchup and Trends

• Historical edge: Wisconsin has won 8 of its last 9 season openers while Miami has struggled in season starts recently.
• Spread trends: Miami (OH) has failed to cover in each of its last five road openers, while Wisconsin has covered five of its last six games overall, but has struggled to cover double-digit spreads at home against non-ranked teams.
• Regional nuance: Wisconsin has a poor record against Ohio-based teams and Miami has a history of playing well against non-AP ranked opponents.
• Player impact: Transfer QB Dequan Finn could be a game-changer for Miami’s offense, while Wisconsin’s Edwards Jr. is reliable and poised to lead a run-focused attack.
• Defensive strength: Miami returns enough defensive talent to keep the game competitive despite missing some starters.

Prediction Summary

This contest presents a classic clash of a traditional power attempting to reset against a rising opponent from the MAC with momentum, a strong defense, and a new dynamic quarterback. While Wisconsin has the advantages of home field, established tradition, and a stout defense, the Badgers’ recent struggles against teams outside their immediate scout rank and their difficulty covering large spreads at home suggest caution.

Miami (OH) looks improved on offense and fields a defense capable of exploiting Wisconsin’s transitional offense. Given the trends and player matchups, the RedHawks should be able to keep this game closer than the 17.5-point spread. Expect a lower-scoring, defense-heavy game reflective of Wisconsin’s emphasis on the run, but Miami’s passing game could surprise, keeping the door open for an upset or at least a large cover.

Final Prediction

Take Miami (OH) +17.5 on the spread. The Badgers will win but likely by a closer margin than the line suggests, making the RedHawks an attractive betting play in this season opener.