Memphis vs Troy prediction and analysis

Game Overview

This Saturday, September 13, 2025, the Memphis Tigers (2-0) will visit the Troy Trojans (1-1) at Veterans Memorial Stadium in Alabama, kickoff set for 12:00 PM EDT. The betting line favors Memphis by 4.5 points, with an over/under set around 51.5 points. Both teams come in ranked outside the top 50 nationally, with Memphis at No. 59 and Troy at No. 104, but both have shown promising efforts so far this young season.

Team Analysis

Troy Trojans

• Currently sitting at 1-1, Troy lost a competitive road game against Clemson 17-26 but outgained them overall in yardage (416 to 249).
• Quarterback Goose Crowder has been solid, completing 14 of 24 passes for 144 yards and three touchdowns last game, while running back Tae Meadows contributed a robust 186 rushing yards, indicating a balanced offensive attack.
• Defensively, the Trojans have struggled to generate turnovers but have maintained solid tackling, led by Jordan Stringer and pass-rusher Devin Lafayette.
• Troy excels in controlling possession, leading the FBS in time of possession this season (42:02 per game), showcasing their ability to manage game tempo.
• Historically, Troy has struggled against non-conference opponents at home, covering just one of their last eight spreads and losing the majority of September games, which could be a key psychological barrier.

Memphis Tigers

• Memphis is undefeated at 2-0, with a convincing 38-16 win over Georgia State showcasing their balanced attack and stout defense.
• Quarterback Brendon Lewis has been efficient, completing 80% of his passes last game, while Sutton Smith leads their rushing and receiving efforts demonstrating dynamic versatility.
• The Tigers defense has been formidable, holding opponents to just 13 points per game on average and excelling in shutting down third quarters, having won the last five in a row.
• Memphis has dominated recent matchups against Sun Belt teams like Troy, winning their last 12 meetings, including a 21-point victory in their only previous matchup last season.
• Memphis also has a strong track record against teams from Alabama, covering six consecutive spreads in those contests, indicative of their comfort playing away in this region.

Key Matchup Factors

• Memphis’ defensive solidity, particularly in limiting scoring in the second and third quarters, will test Troy’s offense that relies on time management and ball control.
• Troy’s ability to control the clock could limit Memphis’ offensive possessions and create opportunities if Memphis’ offense is slowed down.
• Turnover margin and efficiency in third-down conversions might decide the winner given both teams’ strengths in those areas.
• Historical dominance by Memphis over Troy and consistent success against Sun Belt teams and Alabama-based opponents strengthen Memphis’ position.
• The total points line near 51.5 aligns with recent trends of both teams having multiple games finish under the total, suggesting a more defensive, controlled game.

Prediction Summary

Considering Memphis’ undefeated record, defensive prowess, and recent dominance over Troy and similar opponents, Memphis holds the advantage in this contest. Troy’s strong time of possession and balanced offense could keep the game competitive, but Memphis’ ability to control key moments and produce timely scoring likely results in a road win covering the 4.5-point spread.

Expect a controlled game with moderate scoring, reflecting the teams’ defensive efficiency and strategic play. The Tigers’ experience against Sun Belt teams on the road and their airtight defense in critical quarters tip the scales in their favor.

Final Prediction

Memphis Tigers to win and cover the -4.5 point spread on the road.