Memphis vs NC State prediction and analysis

Team Overview and Recent Performance

The upcoming bowl game between the Memphis Tigers and the NC State Wolfpack presents an intriguing clash of styles and historical trends. Memphis comes into this contest with a strong record against non-conference opponents, having won their last 11 such games and covering the spread in nine of their last 10 non-conference matchups. On the other hand, NC State has struggled in neutral site games, losing its last six and showing difficulty covering spreads against non-conference teams.

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Betting Trends and Recent Statistics

• NC State has dominated recent matchups against American Conference teams with five wins in their last six, and they have covered the spread in four of their last five games as favorites.
• Despite that, NC State’s performance at neutral venues and against non-conference opponents has been underwhelming. They have lost the first half in their last six neutral site games against non-conference foes and have failed to cover in eight of their last nine such contests.
• Memphis has shown consistent strength on the road and neutral sites, winning first quarters in their last seven neutral site games against non-conference teams and showcasing a high red zone scoring percentage (93.8%).
• Both teams are strong in red zone efficiency, with NC State at 92.7% and Memphis slightly better at 93.8%, suggesting a tight scoring battle inside the 20-yard line.
• Defensively, NC State ranks poorly against the pass (134th in passing yards allowed per game), while Memphis has demonstrated the ability to perform strongly in the latter stages of the game, leading the country in fourth quarter average point differential (+5.4).

Player Impact

NC State’s receiving threat Justin Joly leads the ACC in receiving touchdowns this season with seven, providing a key offensive weapon. Memphis’ rushing attack has an efficient component with Sutton Smith ranking 17th nationally in yards per carry (6.6), indicating Memphis’ strength on the ground.

Game Flow and Scoring Outlook

Historical data shows NC State often starts strong against American Conference teams, winning the first quarter in five of six recent games. Against Memphis and other North Carolina teams, Memphis has dominated the early stages, winning the first quarter in seven straight neutral site games. Interestingly, Memphis games against North Carolina teams tend to be high scoring with seven of the last eight outings going over the total, while NC State’s recent games against American Conference teams tend to be lower scoring with under results in their last five.

Prediction Summary

Taking into account Memphis’ strong neutral site and non-conference performance, including their dominance in early quarters and fourth quarter resilience, combined with NC State’s struggles at neutral sites and against non-conference foes, Memphis appears well-positioned to extend their recent success. The matchup is poised to be competitive, but Memphis’ ability to capitalize on red zone opportunities and maintain a vigorous ground game gives them the edge.

Prediction: Memphis Tigers to win a closely contested game by a margin of about one touchdown. Expect the Tigers to set the early tempo and finish strong, potentially covering the spread against an NC State team that has struggled to perform away from home and outside its usual conference matchups.