Liberty vs Louisiana Tech prediction and analysis
Game Overview
The Liberty Flames are set to face the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs in a pivotal Week 13 matchup. Both teams come into this game with mixed recent performances and are looking to gain momentum as the season winds down. Liberty has stumbled recently with four losses in their last five games and struggles covering the spread as a road favorite, while Louisiana Tech is playing better at home, winning five of their last six games at Joe Aillet Stadium and showing strength as a home underdog.
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Key Trends and Statistics
- Liberty Flames: They have lost four of their last five games as a road favorite and have also failed to cover the spread in five of their last six such games. Despite these struggles, Liberty has been solid in the early portions of conference games, winning the first quarter in four of their last five and the first half in all of their last five conference matchups.
- Louisiana Tech Bulldogs: At home, they have an encouraging record, winning five of six and covering the spread in recent November home games as underdogs. The Bulldogs have won the first quarter in seven of their last eight conference games and the first half in three of their last four home conference games. However, they have a tough history as underdogs overall, losing 15 of their last 16 games as such, reflecting challenges in overcoming expectations.
- Defensive and Offensive Notes: Louisiana Tech ranks in the top 5 nationally for interceptions (15) and has a respectable 33.3% fourth-down conversion defense percentage. Liberty, meanwhile, ranks solidly in limiting points early in games (allowing just 2.3 points per first quarter on average) and 9 points in the first half against conference foes. Liberty linebacker Jakari Foster is also among the nation’s top defensive players with four interceptions this season. On offense, Louisiana Tech’s Evan Dickens stands out as a consistent rusher, among only 18 FBS players to run for 100+ yards in three or more consecutive games this season.
- Scoring Expectations: Notably, every one of Louisiana Tech’s last 10 games as a home underdog has gone over the total points line, indicating potentially high scoring and competitive matchups. Similarly, Liberty’s recent games against Louisiana teams have tended to exceed scoring expectations.
Prediction Summary
This matchup promises to be a competitive clash. While Liberty has waned recently on the road and has failed to cover spreads against strong opposition, their early-game defensive resilience could keep them in the game. Louisiana Tech’s home advantage and strong start in conference games makes them a difficult opponent, especially considering their recent success covering spreads at home in November.
From a tactical standpoint, Liberty’s ability to limit early scoring could slow Louisiana Tech’s offensive momentum, but the Bulldogs are likely to leverage their home crowd and consistent rushing attack from Evan Dickens to wear down the Flames’ defense. Given Louisiana Tech’s historical difficulty as underdogs overall, but their current strong form at home, this battle should be fairly close with potential for an exciting, high-scoring first half.
Final Prediction: Louisiana Tech to edge out Liberty in a close contest, winning by a margin of 3 to 7 points. Expect a competitive first half with Louisiana Tech holding a slight advantage by halftime, but Liberty will remain within striking distance throughout.
