Kennesaw State vs New Mexico State prediction and analysis
Matchup Overview
On November 8, 2025, the Kennesaw State Owls (6-2) visit the New Mexico State Aggies (3-5) in what promises to be a compelling Week 11 college football contest. With New Mexico State favored at home by 8.5 points and an over/under set at 52.5, this game pits a surging Kennesaw State team against a New Mexico squad looking to leverage recent underdog success in November games.
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Key Factors and Team Analysis
- Recent Form: Kennesaw State is on a six-game winning streak and has covered the spread in their last five contests. Conversely, New Mexico State has struggled against teams from Georgia, losing six of seven such matchups, and has often failed to cover historically as a home underdog in November.
- Home Field Trends: The home team has won nine of Kennesaw State’s last ten games, indicating that New Mexico State’s home venue has favored Kennesaw State in recent years.
- Offensive and Defensive Stats: New Mexico State’s rushing offense ranks near the bottom nationally (136th) at 68.3 yards per game, and their first-quarter scoring is notably weak (2.4 points per game, T132nd nationally). Kennesaw State, however, has a strong start to games, ranking 11th in FBS for first-quarter points with 9.5 per game, and dominates early play, having won the first quarter in three of their last four conference games and the first half in each of the last four.
- Time of Possession: Kennesaw State holds the ball less than many top teams globally (26:55 minutes per game), which could indicate a more explosive, efficient offensive style rather than ball control.
- Special Teams Impact: Kennesaw State’s kicker Ryan Hawk is ranked ninth nationally in made field goals (15), suggesting reliable scoring ability from special teams. New Mexico State’s Gabriel Benyard leads Conference USA in punt return yards with 171, indicating potential for explosive returns.
- Betting Trends: New Mexico State has covered the spread in seven of their last eight November games as underdogs, while Kennesaw State has consistently covered the spread in their recent games. Both teams have a notable trend toward lower-scoring affairs, as indicated by multiple recent games going UNDER the total points line.
Prediction Summary
Despite New Mexico State’s advantage in betting spread history as underdogs in November, the Owls’ recent dominance with six consecutive wins and strong starts to games give them the psychological and statistical edge. Their track record of covering the spread combined with New Mexico State’s struggles to generate rushing offense and early points suggest New Mexico State will struggle to keep pace early. The Owls’ special teams reliability and efficient scoring further bolster their prospects.
Expect a game paced by defense and efficient offense, likely trending toward the UNDER total points benchmark, given both teams have recorded multiple recent low-scoring affairs.
Final Prediction
Kennesaw State to win and cover the 8.5-point spread; predicted final score around 24-13 in favor of Kennesaw State.
