James Madison vs Texas State prediction and analysis
Matchup Overview
The James Madison Dukes (6-1) face off against the Texas State Bobcats (3-4) on October 28, 2025, in a critical Sun Belt Conference clash. The line currently favors James Madison as a 7-point favorite, with an over/under of 55.5 points. This game presents an intriguing battle of strategic defenses and potent offenses with both teams seeking momentum moving deeper into the season.
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Team Form and Trends
- James Madison Dukes: The Dukes have been dominant lately, winning seven of their last eight games and showcasing a strong ability to control the clock and stifle opposing rushing attacks. Their defense is elite, ranking 2nd nationally in fewest rushing yards allowed per game (74.3), and they control the ball with the 2nd best time of possession nationally (35:32).
- Texas State Bobcats: Texas State enters this game with a losing record but has been competitive in many outings. The Bobcats have struggled in October, losing their last five games against unranked teams and failing to cover the spread in those contests. However, they have found value as the underdog recently, covering in five of their last six games.
Key Factors To Watch
- Offensive Leaders: Sun Belt standouts Lincoln Pare (9 touchdowns) and Alonza Barnett III (9 rushing touchdowns) will look to impact the game significantly. Expect the Bobcats to rely heavily on Barnett to help counter James Madison’s stout rush defense.
- Defensive Matchups: James Madison’s rugged front seven will challenge Texas State’s offense, particularly in the trenches. The Dukes’ ability to limit big plays and control the clock could be decisive.
- Spread Trends: James Madison has failed to cover in most October games recently, while Texas State has found some success as underdogs. This might keep the Bobcats within reach despite the spread.
- Scoring Pace: Both teams’ recent games against non-AP-ranked opponents have tended to go under the total, suggesting a more controlled, defense-oriented contest.
Prediction Summary
James Madison’s consistent defense and superior time of possession give them a clear edge. They are likely to control the flow on offense while frustrating Texas State’s attempts to establish momentum. However, Texas State’s recent underdog covers and key offensive talents can keep the game competitive. Expect a lower-scoring, tightly contested matchup.
Final Prediction: James Madison to win 24-17, covering the 7-point spread comfortably.
