James Madison vs Coastal Carolina prediction and analysis
Matchup Overview
The upcoming game between the James Madison Dukes and the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers presents an intriguing clash, especially as both teams seek to assert control heading into the late stages of the college football season. Coastal Carolina, known for a strong rushing attack, faces a tough James Madison squad that boasts one of the nation’s best defenses in critical game phases.
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Key Team Statistics
- Coastal Carolina’s Offense: Averaging a robust 179.6 rushing yards per game, the Chanticleers rely heavily on their ground game led by Ja’Vin Simpkins (562 yards, 2 touchdowns). This balanced approach helps them move the chains effectively but has resulted in a moderately high points allowed average of 31.6 points per game.
- Coastal Carolina’s Defense: Defensively challenging, they have allowed 450.5 yards per contest, with standouts such as Xamarion Gordon (66 tackles), Zeke Campbell (5.5 sacks), and Myles Woods (2 interceptions) anchoring their scheme.
- James Madison’s Defense: James Madison has proven to be particularly dominant in the second half, ranking 4th nationally in opponent points allowed during the second half (5.4) and excelling in third-quarter point differential (+7.5). This suggests excellent halftime adjustments and a strong finish.
- Running Back Efficiency: James Madison’s Samari Collier holds a notable 6.1 yards per carry, ranking 36th among qualified players nationally, while Wayne Knight’s dual-threat capabilities (over 250 rushing and receiving yards) offer diverse offensive options.
Trends and Situational Factors
- Coastal Carolina’s recent performance as a home underdog is impressive, covering the spread in six of their last seven contests and winning three of four November games underdog at home.
- James Madison has struggled to cover the spread recently in November games despite winning, failing to cover in four of the last five as favorites.
- Historically, James Madison has excelled against unranked opponents, holding a nine-game win streak underlining their consistency against non-top tier teams.
- Coastal Carolina has a notable difficulty with AP-ranked teams, having lost their last three encounters.
Offensive and Defensive Matchups
Coastal Carolina’s offense tends to produce high-scoring affairs, as their last four games as underdogs and James Madison’s last five games have predominantly gone over the total points line. Coastal’s early game defense ranks near the bottom nationally in points allowed during the first quarter and first half, which James Madison could exploit by pushing the pace early.
Prediction Summary
Given James Madison’s stout second-half defense and ability to maintain control over non-ranked teams, paired with Coastal Carolina’s home-underdog resiliency but defensive vulnerabilities, the Dukes appear poised to control the game’s tempo and capitalize on defensive lapses early and late. While Coastal Carolina will leverage their rushing attack and home crowd support to keep this competitive, James Madison’s balanced attack and defensive discipline should prevail.
Final Prediction
James Madison Dukes to win with a modest margin, expecting a final score differential around 7-10 points.
