Iowa State vs Oklahoma State prediction and analysis

Matchup Overview

The upcoming clash between the Iowa State Cyclones and the Oklahoma State Cowboys offers an intriguing betting opportunity, reflecting contrasting team performances and trends. Oklahoma State is enduring a significant slump, having lost their last 10 games, while Iowa State has shown resilience, particularly in November games.

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Key Recent Trends

• Oklahoma State’s form: The Cowboys have not secured a win in their previous 10 contests, which underscores their ongoing challenges.
• Spread performance: Historically, favorites prevail in 16 out of Oklahoma State’s last 17 games, yet the Cowboys have struggled to cover the spread at home, missing it in nine of their last 11 games at Boone Pickens Stadium.
• Iowa State’s November consistency: The Cyclones have covered the spread in three of their last four November games, demonstrating increased competitiveness late in the season.
• Points total tendencies: Iowa State’s last four November games have all finished under the total points line, whereas five of Oklahoma State’s last six home conference games have gone over.

Statistical Insights

• Oklahoma State ranks near the bottom among FBS teams with an 80.0% fourth down conversion rate against, ranking 135th nationwide, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities.
• The Cowboys produce a modest 14.3 points per game, ranked 134th, reflecting their offensive struggles.
• Iowa State boasts one of the nation’s best defenses in the fourth quarter, allowing only 4.4 points per game (T23rd nationally), indicating a strong finish capability.
• Time of possession is a strength for Iowa State, as they control the ball for 31 minutes and 27 seconds per game (29th nationally), which can help in managing the game’s tempo and keeping the opposing offense off the field.

Prediction Summary

Given Oklahoma State’s current losing streak and offensive deficiencies, coupled with Iowa State’s ability to control possession and a stout defense late in games, the Cyclones are positioned to capitalize. The historical spread trends at Boone Pickens Stadium suggest that while Oklahoma State often fails to cover at home, Iowa State’s recent November form indicates they are likely to perform well.

The divergence in scoring tendencies also suggests a potentially lower-scoring affair, aligning with Iowa State’s recent UNDER finishes in November.

Final Prediction

Iowa State Cyclones to cover the spread and secure a moderate victory over Oklahoma State, with the game likely staying under the expected points total.