Incarnate Word vs UTSA prediction and analysis

Matchup Overview

The Incarnate Word Cardinals (1-1) travel to face the UTSA Roadrunners (0-2) on September 13, 2025, in a matchup that pits a determined FCS visitor against a struggling FBS host at the Alamodome. UTSA is favored by 16.5 points, with an over/under of 61.5 set by the sportsbooks. This game offers intriguing dynamics involving recent team performance trends, individual standout players, and situational factors that could influence the outcome.

Key Elements to Consider

• UTSA’s Home Dominance: The Roadrunners own an imposing 27-2 record against non-AP-ranked opponents at home. Their comfort at the Alamodome is a significant advantage.
• Spread and Trends: UTSA has a strong recent history covering the spread, managing it in six of seven games overall. However, September has been a troublesome month with six losses in seven and failed spreads in eight of nine games played in this month.
• Defensive Struggles: UTSA ranks near the bottom of FBS in defense, allowing 42.5 points and 15.5 second-quarter points per game, pointing to vulnerabilities Incarnate Word could exploit.
• Offensive Firepower: Running back Robert Henry leads FBS rushing yards this season with 336 yards, providing a focal point for UTSA’s offense.
• Incarnate Word’s Upset Potential: As a motivated road underdog from FCS, Incarnate Word is looking to pull off a major upset, especially against an FBS team with defensive issues.
• Game Flow Prediction: High-scoring games have been frequent for UTSA with recent contests going over the total points line consistently.

Analytical Breakdown

UTSA’s historical dominance at home cannot be overstated, especially against teams outside the AP Top 25. They are accustomed to using their crowd advantage and home familiarity to impose their game plan. Their star rushing attack with Robert Henry offers balance and control. Nonetheless, defensive lapses make them vulnerable to quick scoring drives and potentially explosive plays.

Incarnate Word’s Cardinals, while from a lower division, have shown competitiveness and may focus on exploiting second-quarter defensive weaknesses and forcing turnovers. The Cardinals have incentive to keep things close or even pull off what would be a major upset, especially if they can slow the pace enough to force UTSA into mistakes.

Considering UTSA’s September struggles, including covering the spread, the double-digit line may be too steep. The Roadrunners could win but might not cover by as much as expected. Additionally, the trend of high total points suggests a shootout is likely, favoring the over on 61.5.

Prediction Summary

Expect UTSA to leverage its home-field advantage and the rushing attack of Robert Henry to secure a victory. However, defensive issues and September trends hint that Incarnate Word will keep the game closer than the spread implies. The contest is likely to be high scoring, pushing the total points over the posted line.

Final Prediction: UTSA wins but fails to cover the 16.5-point spread; the total points go over 61.5.