Idaho State vs UNLV prediction and analysis
Matchup Overview
The Idaho State Bengals (5-7 in 2024) are set to open their 2025 campaign against the UNLV Rebels (11-3 in 2024) on August 23rd at Allegiant Stadium. This non-conference clash pits a rebuilding FCS team against a Mountain West powerhouse entering a new coaching era under Dan Mullen. With UNLV favored by 24.5 points and a total set at 64.5, this game promises intriguing storylines from both sides.
Idaho State Bengals Analysis
Idaho State struggled last season, finishing below .500 with a 5-7 mark including 3-5 in the Big Sky Conference. However, they return Jordan Cooke at quarterback, a significant boost after his redshirt season in 2024. Cooke was the catalyst for Idaho State’s explosive passing attack in 2023, throwing for over 2400 yards and leading the FCS in passing offense. The Bengals also bring back the majority of their top receivers, including Ian Duarte who posted solid numbers last year. Some fresh talent from the transfer portal adds intrigue, though the major concern remains their defense, especially a completely overhauled defensive line. Defensive continuity will be lacking early as new players adapt, which could prove challenging against a potent Rebel offense.
UNLV Rebels Analysis
UNLV had a banner 2024 season finishing 11-3 overall and reaching the Mountain West title game. New head coach Dan Mullen inherits a team with a proven winning culture. The quarterback position has been stabilized with transfers Anthony Colandrea from Virginia and Alex Orji from Michigan, providing a dual-threat dynamic that should fit Mullen’s system well. Running back Jai’Den Thomas is a key offensive weapon after nearing 1,000 yards last year. While there remain some unsettled pieces at wide receiver, players like Jaden Bradley and JoJo Earle offer upside. On defense, only two starters return, but Mullen has aggressively loaded the roster with transfers to fill gaps. Historically, UNLV struggles slightly against Idaho-based teams at home but is dominant versus non-conference opponents, boasting a strong covering record against the spread. Their recent games trend toward lower scoring totals, which adds an interesting angle for the Over/Under.
Key Factors and Matchup Insights
- Quarterback Play: The matchup of Idaho State’s Jordan Cooke and UNLV’s newly settled QB options will be pivotal. Cooke’s experience in a high-octane passing attack could exploit UNLV’s young defense.
- Defensive Overhaul for Idaho State: The Bengals’ revamped defensive line will likely need time to gel, which UNLV’s balanced attack should test early and often.
- UNLV’s Offensive Versatility: With a dual-threat QB combination and a leading running back, the Rebels have multiple ways to generate offense even if their WR corps is a work in progress.
- Historical Betting Trends: UNLV has struggled to cover large spreads against Idaho teams before but thrives against non-conference foes and covers frequently, suggesting they have value despite the big line.
- Scoring Expectations: Team tendencies and defensive questions hint that scoring could be higher than usual in this matchup, especially early as defenses feel each other out.
Final Prediction
Given Kansas State’s defensive rebuilding state and UNLV’s strong offensive pieces backed by a disciplined coaching staff, expect the Rebels to dominate possession and score at will. However, Idaho State’s passing attack, led by Cooke, should find success against a young UNLV secondary, making this more competitive than the spread suggests. The Bengals’ defensive overhaul may limit their ability to keep up, but they will tally points. This game shapes up as a fast-paced contest with plenty of scoring opportunities on both sides.
Prediction: UNLV to win, covering the 24.5-point spread. Expect a final score around UNLV 45, Idaho State 21. Consider betting the over on the total points line of 64.5 as both offenses have the potential to put up impressive numbers.
