Idaho State vs UNLV prediction and analysis

Game Overview

On August 23, 2025, the Idaho State Bengals (5-7) will face off against the UNLV Rebels (11-3) in a highly anticipated Week 0 matchup at Allegiant Stadium. This contest pits an Idaho State squad eager to rebound from a challenging 2024 season against a UNLV team under new leadership aiming to build on a strong previous campaign. The Rebels enter the game as heavy favorites with a -24.5 point spread, while the over/under is set at 64.5 points.

Idaho State Bengals Analysis

• The Bengals are aiming to reset following a 5-7 finish last year, which included a 3-5 record in Big Sky Conference play.
• Key to their offense is quarterback Jordan Cooke, back after redshirting in 2024. Cooke threw for 2,453 yards in 2023, leading the FCS in passing offense.
• The receiving corps returns four of its top six receivers, including Ian Duarte, a reliable target with 47 catches for 504 yards and 3 touchdowns last year.
• Idaho State welcomed new talent from the transfer portal (Baylor and UTEP), yet their biggest challenge lies in overhauling a defensive line that struggled last season.

UNLV Rebels Analysis

• UNLV is led by new head coach Dan Mullen after an 11-3 season, including a Mountain West title game appearance and a LA Bowl victory over Cal.
• Quarterbacks Anthony Colandrea (transfer from Virginia) and Alex Orji (transfer from Michigan) provide dual-threat capability, eliminating previous QB uncertainties.
• Running back Jai’Den Thomas, a Mountain West all-Second Team selection, averaged strong performances with 918 rushing yards last season.
• The receiving group features Jaden Bradley for consistency and JoJo Earle for explosive potential, although the corps remains somewhat unproven.
• Defensively, only two starters return, but Mullen revamped the squad through the transfer portal, which could yield results once the pieces gel.

Key Trends and Matchup Factors

• UNLV has struggled historically against Idaho-based teams at home, failing to cover the spread in five of its last six games in this scenario.
• The Rebels have won seven consecutive games against non-AP-ranked teams and covered the spread in 14 of their last 16 non-conference matches, displaying strong performance in similar matchups.
• Both teams have new or adjusted elements which could influence the flow and scoring of the game, notably Idaho State’s defensive rebuild and UNLV’s fresh coaching regime.
• The last four games involving UNLV have gone under the total points line, indicating recent game tempo adjustments despite this matchup’s over/under set at 64.5.

Prediction and Betting Angle

While UNLV is clearly the stronger team on paper and should win comfortably, Idaho State’s revitalized passing game led by Jordan Cooke is poised to challenge the Rebels’ defense early. UNLV’s offensive versatility and depth, particularly the dual-threat QB situation and strong rushing attack, should wear down Idaho State’s rebuilding defense over the course of the game.

Given UNLV’s history of covering the spread in non-conference games and Idaho State’s defensive vulnerabilities, the Rebels are likely to exceed the 24.5-point margin. However, early scoring exchanges suggest a faster-paced game that supports the over on 64.5 total points.

Final Prediction: UNLV Rebels 45, Idaho State Bengals 20