Georgia Southern vs Arkansas State prediction and analysis

Matchup Overview

On October 25, 2025, the Georgia Southern Eagles (3-4) travel to face the Arkansas State Red Wolves (3-4) in a Sun Belt Conference showdown. The game starts at 7:00 PM EDT, with Arkansas State favored by one point. The Over/Under is set at a relatively high 62.5, hinting at expectations for a potentially dynamic offensive display.

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Key Factors to Consider

• Home Field Advantage and Trends: Arkansas State has been formidable at home against non-AP-ranked teams, winning nine of their last ten such games and covering the spread in six of the last seven. Conversely, Georgia Southern has struggled on the road in October, losing six of the last seven road games against similar non-AP opposition and failing to cover as an underdog in four straight.
• Recent Performance of the Underdog: Despite their recent road struggles, Georgia Southern has won three of its last four October games as an underdog and covered the spread in the same number, indicating resilience in tough conditions.
• Defensive Vulnerabilities: Both teams have defensive issues, especially early in games. Arkansas State ranks near the bottom nationally with a -6.9 average point differential in first quarters, while Georgia Southern is similarly weak defensively, allowing 467.1 yards per game, among the worst in FBS, and conceding over 21 points in the first half on average.
• Offensive Weapons: Georgia Southern boasts Sun Belt leader Ethan Hassler with two forced fumbles this season, pivotal for defensive momentum swings. Arkansas State features receiver Camden Brown, who leads the conference with eight receiving touchdowns—a key threat that could tilt the game.
• Scoring Totals and Trends: Interestingly, recent games involving these teams have differed on scoring trends — Georgia Southern’s last eight non-AP games mostly went over the total points line, while Arkansas State’s last four went under. The high O/U of 62.5 suggests a moderately high scoring game.

Prediction Summary

Given the home success and spread-covering history of Arkansas State combined with Georgia Southern’s mixed road results, the Red Wolves hold a slight edge. Both defenses have shown vulnerabilities, hinting that the game could be competitive and see a healthy amount of points—possibly pushing toward that Over number.

Arkansas State’s offensive ability, led by star receiver Camden Brown, and the advantage of playing at home make them the likely winner, although expect a close, hard-fought game.

Final Prediction

Arkansas State -1, Over 62.5