Fresno State vs Kansas prediction and analysis

Matchup Overview

Saturday night at David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium, the Fresno State Bulldogs travel to face the Kansas Jayhawks in a notable season opener kickoff. Both programs are looking to bounce back after challenging 2024 campaigns, making this an intriguing contest with momentum and confidence on the line.

Fresno State Bulldogs Analysis

The Bulldogs finished last season 6-7 under interim head coach Tim Skipper after Jeff Tedford unexpectedly stepped down due to health reasons. While the mid-season coaching shuffle was a curveball, Fresno State showed flashes, especially early on, but dropped four of their final five games including a narrow bowl loss.

This offseason brought a fresh restructuring as Matt Entz takes over as head coach along with new coordinators on both sides of the ball. There’s considerable roster turnover, particularly at wide receiver due to transfers, but new signals come from transfer quarterback EJ Warner from Rice, who could ignite the offense if he adapts quickly. Defensively, Fresno State was strong in second-quarter defense last year, particularly limiting opponents’ scoring.

Kansas Jayhawks Outlook

The Jayhawks’ 2024 season was a rollercoaster, opening in the AP Top 25 and stumbling to 2-6, only to rally impressively in November by knocking off ranked foes Iowa State, BYU, and Colorado. The final record of 5-7 belies a team capable of surges under fifth-year head coach Lance Leipold.

Kansas benefits from continuity on the coaching staff with some new faces but a core returning. Their home stadium renovations have wrapped up, offering a familiar and improved environment for the Jayhawks to utilize. Offensively, they possess one of the nation’s top third-down conversion rates and a strong rushing attack. However, replacing the production of star running back Devin Neal will be critical.

Key Factors and Trends

• Kansas has won its last four season openers and has a strong home-field spread record recently.
• Fresno State has struggled covering spreads as underdogs but has performed well in non-conference road games.
• Defensively, Fresno State excels in limiting second-quarter points, which may slow Kansas’ efficient offense early in the game.
• Both teams tend to see lower-scoring season openers, with recent games trending UNDER the total points line.
• Quarterback health and adaptation, especially with EJ Warner at Fresno State and Jalon Daniels for Kansas, will be pivotal.

Prediction

Given Kansas’ home advantage, offseason stability, and demonstrated ability to elevate play late in 2024, they are favored to start 2025 strong. While Fresno State’s new coaching staff and incoming transfers bring potential, the early chemistry questions and roster rebuild pose challenges on the road against a Big 12 opponent in an energized stadium.

The line favoring Kansas by 12.5 points reflects expectations of a solid Jayhawks win, but with Fresno State’s defensive prowess, the margin may stay within two touchdowns. Expect a methodical pace with Kansas controlling critical third downs and the rushing attack, while Fresno State fights to keep it close through stout defense and strategic playcalling.

Final Prediction: Kansas 30, Fresno State 17