Colorado State vs Boise State prediction and analysis
Matchup Overview
The upcoming clash between the Colorado State Rams and the Boise State Broncos features two Mountain West Conference rivals with contrasting recent trends and statistical profiles. This game at Albertsons Stadium in Boise sees a Broncos team confident in front of its home crowd against a Rams squad struggling to find success in November and on the road against Boise State.
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Key Trends and Historical Context
- Colorado State’s struggles as an underdog: The Rams have lost their last 10 November games when underdogs versus non-ranked opponents, highlighting a recurring difficulty in close matches late in the season.
- Boise State’s dominance at home: The Broncos have won 15 of their last 16 games against non-AP-ranked teams at Albertsons Stadium, showcasing a fortress-like home-field advantage.
- Against the spread (ATS) patterns: Colorado State has failed to cover in its last four trips to Boise, while Boise State has covered six of the last seven spreads as a home favorite versus Colorado teams.
- Scoring trends: Recent games at Albertsons Stadium and involving these teams have favored the over bet, with the last four games in this venue and Boise’s last four favorite matchups versus Colorado boasting results exceeding expected total points lines.
Statistical Breakdown
- Time of Possession: Boise State ranks 11th nationally, controlling the ball for over 32 minutes per game, a critical factor likely to limit Colorado State’s offensive opportunities.
- Defensive first quarters: Boise State has allowed only 2.6 points per game in the first quarter, ranking 14th among FBS teams, which signals strong early defensive play.
- Colorado State’s scoring challenges: The Rams rank tied for 127th in Q3 points per game (3.1) and first half points (8.2), indicating problems generating offense especially in the early and middle parts of the game.
Prediction Summary
All signs point to Boise State maintaining their home dominance and exploiting Colorado State’s November woes. The Broncos’ ability to control possession and suppress early scoring should allow them to build and sustain a lead. Given Colorado State’s difficulties covering the spread on the road and Boise State’s strong ATS record as favorites from Colorado, the Broncos are not only likely to win but also cover comfortably.
Final Prediction
Boise State Broncos to win and cover the spread at Albertsons Stadium. Expect a decisive home victory with a margin in the range of 10 to 17 points.
