Central Michigan vs San José State prediction and analysis

Matchup Overview

The season opener on August 29, 2025, features the Central Michigan Chippewas traveling to San José to face the Spartans at CEFCU Stadium. This Mountain West versus Mid-American Conference clash provides an intriguing early test for both programs. San José State enters favored by 11 points with an over/under set at 51.

Central Michigan Chippewas Analysis

Central Michigan concluded the 2024 season with a disappointing 4-8 record, including a 2-6 standing in the MAC. They struggled offensively, averaging only 22.6 points per game (108th nationally), while their defense allowed nearly 30 points on average (98th nationally). A new head coach is on board for 2025, signaling a rebuild phase for the Chippewas. The team also faces uncertainty at quarterback, potentially utilizing multiple players as the starter remains undecided.

Key concerns center around the offensive line and running game, both of which showed vulnerabilities last year. The loss of top receivers from 2024 further complicates the Chippewas’ ability to generate consistent scoring. While the defense showed improvement potential by adding transfers via the portal, overall cohesion and experience on this side of the ball remain in question. Historically, Central Michigan has struggled on the road, recently losing ten consecutive away games versus unranked teams.

San José State Spartans Assessment

The Spartans compiled a solid 7-6 record in 2024, with a 3-4 mark in Mountain West play. They enjoyed a strong start and notable wins against conference and non-conference opponents including Oregon State and Stanford, and narrowly fell in the Hawaii Bowl. Offensively, San José State leverages a mainly pass-first approach, ranking near the bottom nationally in rushing yards and time of possession, but banking on efficiency through quarterback Walker Eget and an improved offensive line bolstered by transfers.

Defensively, the Spartans excel at creating turnovers, a critical factor that masked some defensive susceptibility last season. Head Coach Niumatalolo aims to build on last year’s successes and continue his program’s upward trajectory. At home, San José State has been dominant, winning and covering the spread in a strong stretch of games at CEFCU Stadium.

Key Factors Influencing the Outcome

• Offensive Efficiency: San José State’s passing game looks poised to exploit Central Michigan’s questionable secondary and inconsistent defensive personnel.
• Turnover Margin: The Spartans’ knack for forcing turnovers could disrupt Central Michigan’s offensive rhythm.
• Home Field Advantage: San José State is solid at home, having covered the spread in its last four outings.
• Central Michigan’s Road Troubles: The Chippewas have endured an extended losing streak on the road against teams outside the AP Top 25, indicating struggles to perform away from home.
• Game Script Dynamics: With the Spartans often controlling possession via passing tempo, expect a game leaning towards the UNDER in total points, consistent with recent encounters involving these teams.

Prediction Summary

While Central Michigan has potential under new leadership, their offense and overall roster still face significant questions early in the season. San José State combines a stronger roster, an established starting quarterback, and a thriving defensive approach to force turnovers that could dictate the flow of the game.

Expect the Spartans to impose their aerial attack and leveraging home-field strength to comfortably cover the 11-point spread. The Chippewas’ continual road shortcomings and offensive line concerns will likely prevent them from keeping pace.

Final Prediction

San José State -11