BYU vs Colorado prediction and analysis
Game Overview
On September 27, 2025, the BYU Cougars (3-0) will face off against the Colorado Buffaloes (2-2) at Folsom Field in a pivotal Week 5 college football matchup. The Buffaloes enter the game as 6.5-point underdogs with an over/under set at 47.5 points. This contest features a strong contrast in team momentum, historical trends, and key individual performances that will heavily influence the outcome.
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Key Trends and Recent Form
- Colorado’s September Dominance at Home: Colorado has won five of its last six games in September and covered the spread in eight of its last nine home conference games. This highlights their strong performance in early fall contests, particularly at Folsom Field.
- Struggles Against Ranked Opponents: The Buffaloes have lost their last seven games to AP-ranked teams, and also failed to cover the spread in three of their last four conference matchups.
- BYU’s September Strength: BYU boasts a 13-game winning streak in September contests where they were favored against non-AP-ranked opponents and have covered each of their last six September spreads in similar scenarios. They also rank near the top in first-half defensive performance.
- Scoring and Totals Trends: Four of Colorado’s last five September games and seven of BYU’s last nine conference matchups went over the total points line, suggesting an elevated scoring potential despite BYU’s defensive prowess.
Statistical Matchups
- Offensive Playmakers: Colorado’s QB Kaidon Salter leads his team with three touchdowns this season, while BYU’s running back LJ Martin stands out as a rare talent, having rushed for over 100 yards in three consecutive games.
- Efficiency Metrics: Colorado ranks 23rd nationally in fourth-down conversion rate (75%), indicative of their aggressiveness on offense. BYU excels defensively with the No. 2 best first-half points allowed per game (1.0) and the best second-quarter average point differential (+17.7), showcasing their ability to build and maintain leads early.
- Challenges for Colorado: A notable concern is Colorado’s average negative point differential in third quarters (-2.5), suggesting difficulties maintaining momentum after halftime adjustments.
Prediction Summary
While Colorado’s strong home record in September and their fourth-down efficiency highlight their potential to keep this game competitive, BYU’s dominant September form, explosive offense led by LJ Martin, and stout first-half defense are the decisive factors. BYU’s ability to start strong and control the tempo early will put pressure on Colorado, who may struggle to respond in the second half.
The over/under leaning towards 47.5 aligns with both teams’ recent tendencies in September to produce higher-scoring games, but BYU’s defensive excellence, particularly in the first half, suggests a controlled pace for much of this contest.
Expect BYU to capitalize on key matchups, maintain composure against a tough Colorado crowd, and emerge victorious by a margin covering the spread.
Final Prediction
Prediction: BYU Cougars -6.5
