Buffalo vs Bowling Green prediction and analysis
Matchup Overview
On November 1, 2025, the Buffalo Bulls (4-4) visit the Bowling Green Falcons (3-5) with the Falcons favored by 2.5 points. The total points line stands at 43.5. This Mid-American Conference clash features two teams looking to gain momentum as the season approaches its final stretch.
Recommended Sports Betting Sites
Buffalo Bulls Analysis
- Buffalo has struggled to cover spreads against unranked teams, failing to do so in their last six tries.
- Defensively strong, Buffalo ranks 12th nationally in limiting opponent points in the first quarter (2.1 PPG) and 14th for the first half (7.8 PPG), highlighting strong early-game defensive performances.
- Offensively, Al-Jay Henderson leads the MAC in rush attempts with 143, suggesting Buffalo relies heavily on a controlled ground game.
- Cameron Pettaway’s 396 kick return yards place him 8th in FBS, offering Buffalo a special teams advantage that can tilt field position.
Bowling Green Falcons Analysis
- Bowling Green’s rushing attack averages 151 yards per game, with Chris McMillian contributing 317 yards and 3 touchdowns, providing a solid ground presence.
- Defensively, the Falcons allow 25.4 points and 354.9 yards per game, which is less than ideal but holds some key playmakers: Gideon Lampron leads with 77 tackles, Myles Bradley has 4 sacks, and Dorian Pringle contributes 1 interception.
- The Falcons have won three of their last four home games but have struggled covering the spread as favorites, failing to cover in their last five such games.
- At Doyt Perry Stadium, underdogs have historically had the upper hand, winning and covering in most recent instances, which could be important given Bowling Green’s recent form as a favorite.
- Bowling Green ranks near the bottom nationally (121st–122nd) for yards per game and first-half scoring (9.1 points), spotlighting offensive inefficiency.
- Their recent trend shows many games hitting the under in points scored, contrasting with Buffalo’s tendency for over.
Key Factors to Watch
- Home Field Advantage: Bowling Green’s home success should not be overlooked, but the struggles in covering spreads as favorites raise concerns.
- Defensive Strength: Buffalo’s disciplined defense, especially early in games, might limit Bowling Green’s below-average offense.
- Running Game: Both teams lean on their run game, but Buffalo’s ground attack correlates with better ball control and time of possession.
- Special Teams Impact: Pettaway’s return capabilities could influence field position battles.
- Spread Trends: Buffalo’s poor record covering spreads combined with Bowling Green’s inability to cover as favorites hints at a close game.
Prediction Summary
Despite being underdogs on the road, Buffalo’s defensive efficacy and balanced offensive approach give them the tools to keep this game tight. Bowling Green’s offensive struggles and failure to cover recent spreads as favorites temper the expectations for a dominant Falcons win. The game is likely to stay under the points total, given Bowling Green’s historical under trend and Buffalo’s defensive prowess.
Final Prediction: Buffalo Bulls +2.5 in a closely contested game with a likely final score in the mid to high 20s for both teams.
