Bryant vs New Mexico State prediction and analysis

Matchup Overview

On August 30, 2025, the Bryant Bulldogs will visit the New Mexico State Aggies at Aggie Memorial Stadium for their season opener. New Mexico State opens as a hefty 19.5-point favorite, reflecting the differing trajectories and roster strengths of these two programs. This analysis will break down key facets of the matchup and provide an informed prediction.

Bryant Bulldogs Team Outlook

Entering his seventh year, Coach Chris Merritt leads a Bryant team that won just two games last season. Returning quarterback Brennan Myer offers some hope, having thrown for 1,100 yards and 12 touchdowns last year. The running game looks set to lean heavily on Dylan Kedzior, who amassed 425 yards on 91 carries, supplemented by newcomer additions at the offensive line, including Northwestern State transfer Brayden Staggs. While the wide receiver corps lost some production, there remain enough weapons, including Aldrich Doe, who grabbed 21 receptions last season. Offensively, Bryant aims to be more productive under coordinator Ben McKaig’s continued guidance.

Defensively, Bryant boasts seasoned contributors like Lonnie Rice (36 tackles) and Olatunde Mkparu (34 tackles, 2 pass breakups), anchored by defensive lineman Michael Otty, one of the top performers in the Colonial Athletic Association. Defensive coordinator Anthony Barese brings stability in his sixth season, with a defensive unit that should exhibit experience but likely lacks the overall depth and athleticism compared to an FBS foe.

New Mexico State Aggies Team Outlook

Under second-year head coach Tony Sanchez, the Aggies aim to improve on a three-win 2024 campaign. A new offensive coordinator, David Yost, from FIU, is expected to invigorate the offense. Transfer quarterback Logan Fife, with 1,600 yards and six touchdowns in his FBS career so far, is poised to start and lead the offense. The running game features Cal transfer Kadarius Calloway alongside Dijon Stanley from Utah, providing a balanced rushing attack. At receiver, TJ Pride is the focal point, entering the season off a solid 34-catch performance.

Defensively, New Mexico State benefits from the second season of coordinator Joe Morris. Standouts include linebacker Tyler Martinez (94 tackles) and defensive back Sone Aupiu (55 tackles, 5 pass deflections). The defense has several experienced players with C-USA caliber potential, including the addition of Josiah Jackson on the defensive line.

Despite historical struggles — with frequent early-season losses and poor spread coverages in openers — the Aggies’ roster changes suggest a potential breakout season. New Mexico State could contend more seriously within Conference USA and is expected to leverage its home-field advantage effectively in this contest.

Key Factors and Trends

• Experience and Depth: New Mexico State’s roster shows more depth, particularly on defense, which likely will be a crucial advantage.
• Quarterback Play: The Aggies have a more proven signal-caller in Fife, who brings FBS experience and should spark the offense more consistently than Bryant’s Myer.
• Home Field Edge: New Mexico State has historically performed well at home versus non-FBS opponents, having covered the spread in five of six recent such games.
• Historical Struggles: The Aggies have had difficulty opening seasons strong, losing seven of their last eight August games and failing to cover the spread in their last six openers, indicating some vulnerability under high expectations.
• Offensive Potential: Both teams are integrating new or less-proven elements on offense, but New Mexico State arguably has more firepower with immediate impact transfers in key skill positions.

Prediction Summary

While Bryant has made measured improvements and fields some experienced players, the gap in talent and depth between the FCS program and the FBS Aggies is notable. New Mexico State’s infusion of new offensive pieces and a stout defense should allow them to control the game early and maintain control throughout. Expect the Aggies to cover the large spread convincingly at home and start their season on a winning note.

Final Prediction

New Mexico State Aggies win by at least 20 points.