Boise State vs Utah State prediction and analysis
Boise State Broncos vs Utah State Aggies: Betting Preview
This Week 14 matchup features the Boise State Broncos going head to head against the Utah State Aggies in what promises to be a compelling Mountain West Conference battle. Both teams have distinctive strengths and vulnerabilities that will shape the outcome.
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Boise State Broncos Overview
- Offense: The Broncos boast an impressive ground attack, averaging 210.7 rushing yards per game. Dylan Riley is the offensive workhorse, accumulating 896 yards on the ground along with 9 rushing touchdowns — a clear sign of Boise State’s commitment to their running game.
- Defense: Boise State’s defense has been solid, conceding an average of 25.4 points and 354.8 yards per game. Key contributors include Ty Benefield with 83 tackles, Braxton Fely leading the pass rush with 5 sacks, and A’Marion McCoy making crucial plays with 4 interceptions this season.
Utah State Aggies Overview
- Pass Rush: John Miller stands out on defense, leading the Mountain West Conference with 7.5 sacks this season, which will test Boise State’s offensive line and potentially disrupt their run game.
- Red Zone and Scoring Trends: Utah State has struggled defensively in the red zone, ranking tied for 117th nationally with opponents scoring on 89.5% of red zone possessions. However, they compensate with a strong start, ranking tied for 21st in the nation for points scored in the first quarter (8.2 points per game).
Key Matchups and Analysis
The key battle to watch is Boise State’s rushing attack against Utah State’s pass rush. While Dillon Riley’s production anchors the Broncos’ ground game, the pressure from John Miller could limit Boise State’s ability to consistently establish the run. On defense, Boise State’s pass defense is among the nation’s best, ranked 11th in passing yards allowed (165.5 per game), which could stifle Utah State’s aerial attack.
Moreover, Boise State ranks tied for 11th in first downs allowed, showing consistent defensive discipline that could slow Utah State’s drive momentum. Utah State will need to leverage their strong early-game scoring ability to generate an early lead or stay competitive in this contest.
Prediction Summary
Given Boise State’s balanced attack, elite pass defense, and Utah State’s red zone defensive struggles, the Broncos are positioned to control the tempo and capitalize on key defensive stops. Despite John Miller’s threat on the pass rush, Boise State’s offensive line and rushing depth should mitigate this pressure.
Expect Boise State’s ground game to dominate time of possession and wear down the Utah State defense, while the Broncos’ secondary limits big plays through the air. Utah State’s potential for early scoring keeps the game competitive early, but Boise State’s overall strengths suggest they will pull away in the second half.
Final Prediction: Boise State to win by 10 points.
