Boise State vs South Florida prediction and analysis

Matchup Overview

The Boise State Broncos visit the South Florida Bulls at Raymond James Stadium in an intriguing season opener on August 28, 2025. Boise State, a Mountain West powerhouse coming off a 12-win season, faces a South Florida team that has shown rapid improvement under coach Alex Golesh but still struggles defensively. The Bulls enter as roughly 6-point underdogs with an over/under set at 64 points, setting the stage for what promises to be a competitive clash.

Key Factors for Boise State

• Experienced Offense: Boise State returns quarterback Maddux Madsen, fresh off a 3,000-yard, 23-touchdown campaign. Complementing him are receivers Chris Marshall and Latrell Caples, who possess the potential to form a dynamic duo if healthy.
• Strong Offensive Line: The Broncos’ offensive line is arguably the best in the Mountain West, critical to both protecting the quarterback and establishing a balanced attack.
• Defensive Stability: Boise State brings back six starters on defense, including standout pass rusher Jayden Virgin-Morgan and first-team all-MWC linebacker Marco Notarainni. The secondary also features seasoned players like Ty Benefield and A’Marion McCoy, augmented by Notre Dame transfer Jaden Mickey.
• Coaching Continuity: Entering their second full season under Spencer Danielson, Boise State aims to build on last season’s successes and correct past early-season slips.

South Florida’s Prospects

• Offensive Weapons: Quarterback Byrum Brown is a dual-threat, capable of both throwing and running effectively. The running back duo of Cartevious Norton and Nay’Quan Wright is among the best in the AAC, supported by a solid offensive line led by Stanford transfer Connor McLaughlin.
• Defensive Concerns: Despite last year’s seven wins, South Florida ranked near the bottom nationally in defensive metrics (119th in total defense, 100th in scoring defense). Linebacker Jhalyn Shuler is a bright spot but insufficient to carry the defense alone.
• Home Field Advantage: Historically, USF has been competitive at home, with a strong record covering spreads against AP-ranked opponents, though they have struggled to win outright against top-tier teams.

Historical and Situational Insights

• Boise State has lost three of its last four season openers, and has struggled to cover against top-tier competition early in the year.
• South Florida has covered the spread in 10 of its last 12 games versus AP-ranked opponents, signaling an ability to keep games close despite defensive frailties.
• South Florida has dropped 11 straight games against AP-ranked foes at home, illustrating a gap in talent or execution when facing high-caliber teams.
• The favorite has won Boise State’s last 21 games, showing the Broncos’ consistency when expected to perform.

Prediction Summary

This opening matchup will test Boise State’s balance against a fiery South Florida offense and a supportive home crowd. The Broncos possess a more complete roster and defensive foundation, which should allow them to control key phases of the game. While USF’s offense can create some big plays, the Bulls will likely struggle to contain Boise State’s varied attack and to consistently slow down its defense.

The contest is expected to be competitive into the second half, but Boise State’s experience, coaching consistency, and depth should tilt the scales. Expect Boise State to edge South Florida by around a touchdown margin, leveraging both offensive execution and defensive resilience to manage the Bulls’ playmakers.

Final Prediction

Boise State to win by 7 points (Boise State -6).