Boise State vs San Diego State prediction and analysis
Matchup Overview
The upcoming game between the Boise State Broncos and the San Diego State Aztecs promises to be a fascinating clash between two Mountain West Conference rivals. Both teams have showcased distinct strengths and vulnerabilities throughout the season, making this game an intriguing betting proposition. This preview examines key statistical trends, recent performances, and situational factors that will influence the outcome.
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Key Statistical Insights
- Boise State Trends: The Broncos have dominated their conference opponents recently, winning 16 of their last 17 Mountain West games. However, as underdogs, Boise State has struggled, losing nine of their last ten games when not favored. They also have difficulty covering the spread late in the season, failing in four of their last five November games.
- San Diego State Trends: The Aztecs have been reliable at home against the spread, covering in each of their last four home games. However, they have shown vulnerability in November, losing five of their last six games against non-AP-ranked opposition and failing to cover the spread in seven of their last nine November games as favorites. Defensively, San Diego State is elite, ranking 6th nationally in yards allowed per game, which poses a challenge for Boise State’s offense.
- Offense and Defense: Boise State boasts a solid time-of-possession advantage, ranking 12th nationally, which can help control the game’s tempo. They are also among the top teams for forcing turnovers, ranking tied for 14th in interceptions. Conversely, San Diego State’s defense ranks 6th in limiting 1st downs against, indicating strong defensive discipline and efficiency.
Recent Trends and Game Script Considerations
The historical trend heavily favors favorites in games involving Boise State, as they have won 28 of their last 30 contests when favored. San Diego State’s home success covering the spread and Boise State’s issues as underdogs make the Aztecs the more attractive betting side in this game, especially given the November context.
Additionally, the scoring patterns suggest a moderate scoring game, with San Diego State’s recent November home favorites games trending UNDER the total points line, while Boise State’s recent games against California-based teams trending OVER. Bettors should consider the contrasting recent scoring trends and weigh the strong San Diego State defense against Boise State’s ability to sustain drives.
Prediction Summary
Given Boise State’s strong conference play but struggles as an underdog and November trending struggles, combined with San Diego State’s stout defense, strong home spread cover record, and recent November form, the Aztecs have the edge. The key matchup will be whether Boise State can overcome a top-tier defense without committing turnovers they typically generate. Expect a hard-fought defensive battle with lower scoring than some might anticipate.
Final Prediction
San Diego State to cover the spread and win a closely contested game. The defensive prowess of the Aztecs and favorable home trends should give them a narrow advantage over the Broncos.
