Boise State vs Air Force prediction and analysis
Matchup Overview
On September 20, 2025, the Boise State Broncos (1-1) will travel to face the Air Force Falcons (1-1) in a Mountain West Conference battle that holds significant implications for both teams early in the season. The Broncos enter this game looking to capitalize on Air Force’s recent defensive struggles, while the Falcons aim to shore up their run defense and bounce back from a tough loss.
Key Factors Impacting the Game
- Boise State’s Offensive Edge: After opening the season 1-1, Boise State has demonstrated a balanced attack with a passing game that can stretch the field. Their aerial attack will test Air Force’s secondary, which has shown vulnerability against strong passing teams.
- Air Force’s Defensive Challenges: The Falcons suffered a significant 49-30 loss to the New Mexico State Aggies last week, illustrating issues in containing explosive offenses. They allowed nearly 50 points, signaling potential mismatches against Boise State’s varied offensive schemes.
- Running Game Battle: Air Force traditionally relies on a ground-heavy offense with a triple-option scheme. However, struggling to establish the run and facing a Boise State defense that is improving at limiting rushing yardage could be problematic.
- Home Field Advantage: Air Force will have the benefit of playing at Falcon Stadium, where altitude and a passionate home crowd often create a challenging environment for visitors.
- Coaching and Adjustments: Both teams have experienced coaching staffs that emphasize discipline and fundamentals. In-game adjustments will be essential, especially for Air Force’s defense to curtail Boise State’s passing game.
Prediction Summary
Given Air Force’s defensive vulnerability conceded last week and Boise State’s balanced offensive approach, the Broncos are positioned to exploit the Falcons’ weaknesses. While Air Force may find some traction with their running game and home-field dynamics, Boise State’s ability to move the ball through the air and control tempo should prove decisive.
Expect a competitive first half with Boise State edging ahead, and Air Force fighting to stay close. Ultimately, Boise State’s offensive versatility and defensive resilience should yield a solid road victory by approximately two touchdowns.
Final Prediction
Boise State Broncos to win, covering the 9.5-point spread.
