Baylor vs Oklahoma State prediction and analysis
Matchup Overview
This Week 5 Big 12 clash features the Baylor Bears (2-2) traveling to face the Oklahoma State Cowboys (1-2) on September 27, 2025. With Baylor coming off a snapped two-game winning streak and Oklahoma State looking to stabilize under a new head coach, this game carries significant momentum implications within the conference. The betting line currently shows Oklahoma State as a +21 underdog with an over/under set around 57.5 points.
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Key Factors and Team Trends
- Baylor’s Recent Performance: The Bears have been competitive but inconsistent. They snapped a two-game winning streak recently and have struggled somewhat against non-ranked teams, losing three of the last four such contests. However, Baylor holds a strong recent Big 12 trend, having won six of its last seven conference games.
- Oklahoma State’s Struggles: The Cowboys continue to face headwinds, dropping their last 10 conference games and failing to cover the spread in eight straight attempts. They have suffered through difficulties in home games, repeatedly losing the first half in their last five Big 12 home matches.
- Passing Game Comparison: Baylor boasts a potent aerial attack, ranking seventh nationally with 338.5 passing yards per game this season, led by standout quarterback Sawyer Robertson, who is tops in the FBS with 1,320 passing yards. Conversely, Oklahoma State’s quarterback Zane Flores has been underwhelming, currently owning the dubious distinction for the most pass attempts (79) without a passing touchdown this season.
- Scoring Dynamics: Oklahoma State ranks near the bottom (136th) in points scored during the second quarter but excels defensively late in games, notably allowing zero points in the fourth quarter so far this season. On the other side, Baylor has experienced several close finishes, with two of their four games decided by three points or fewer.
- Betting Trends: The underdog has been successful recently in Baylor’s games, winning four of the last six matchups. Interestingly, the spread has not been kind to Baylor as they’ve failed to cover in four straight games against non-ranked opponents. Meanwhile, the Cowboys have a long streak of failing to cover, and Oklahoma State games as home underdogs against Texas teams have tended to go over the total points line.
Prediction Summary
Given Baylor’s superior conference record, stronger passing attack, and Oklahoma State’s ongoing struggles—especially on offense—it’s reasonable to expect Baylor to control the game. The Cowboys’ fearsome defensive stance late in games might keep the score somewhat in check, but they likely won’t be able to keep pace offensively. The large spread (+21) awarded to Oklahoma State indicates bookmakers anticipate a Baylor blowout, and considering recent trends and personnel, that looks justified.
Additionally, the over/under around 57.5 points aligns with the tendencies of both teams to have high-scoring affairs recently when facing each other or similar opponents. Baylor’s consistency in moving the ball through the air and executing in close situations suggests a steady margin of victory.
Final Prediction
Baylor Bears to win comfortably, likely covering the large spread. Prediction: Baylor -21 with the total points going Over 57.5.
