Baylor vs Arizona prediction and analysis

Baylor Bears Performance Overview

The Baylor Bears come into Week 13 reeling from a tough stretch, having lost three of their last four games. Their struggles extend beyond just wins and losses; Baylor has failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight games, indicating difficulties keeping pace with betting expectations. Additionally, the Bears have trended poorly in the first halves of conference matchups, losing three of their last four. Despite this recent downturn, Baylor has demonstrated resilience in November, having won each of their last five November games against non-AP-ranked teams and covering the spread in six such games — a trend that could prove meaningful this weekend.

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Arizona Wildcats Momentum and Strengths

Contrasting Baylor’s recent woes, the Arizona Wildcats have built positive momentum with a three-game winning streak. The Wildcats have shown significant home-field prowess by winning their last six home games against non-AP-ranked teams. Defensively, Arizona has been formidable on the road against Texas teams, although their recent record against such opponents includes three losses in the last four. Their defense shines particularly in limiting passing yards, ranking 7th nationally in passing yards allowed per game (159.5). Arizona also boasts a strong start to games, ranking 6th in FBS for first-quarter points per game (10.4).

Key Player Matchups and Stats

• Quarterbacks: Baylor’s Sawyer Robertson leads FBS in passing yards with 3,210 yards, showcasing an explosive aerial attack. Meanwhile, Arizona’s Noah Fifita ranks 6th nationally with 24 passing touchdowns, illustrating his ability to find the end zone frequently.
• Passing Offenses: Baylor ranks 2nd in the nation for passing yards per game (324.4), indicating a high-powered offense capable of challenging defensive secondaries.
• Late-Game Performance: Baylor’s ability to score in the fourth quarter is elite, ranking 2nd nationally with 11.1 points per game in Q4 — crucial late-game scoring could impact the final result.

Betting Trends and Game Dynamics

The spread trends favor Arizona, as the favorite has covered in each of Baylor’s last four games. However, Baylor’s strong history in November against non-AP-ranked teams and their ability to cover the spread during this period suggest they remain competitive. Arizona’s recent home matches against non-ranked teams consistently see under the total points line, signaling tighter, lower-scoring contests. Baylor’s road games as underdogs have leaned toward the over, suggesting this matchup may offer more scoring than typical Arizona home contests.

Prediction Summary

This Week 13 clash features a Baylor team fighting to regain form and an Arizona squad with momentum and solid home performance. Given Arizona’s stout defense against the pass and home winning streak, they hold a slight edge in controlling game tempo early. Meanwhile, Baylor’s prolific passing offense and late-game scoring ability make them dangerous throughout the contest.

Arizona’s consistency in covering the spread as favorites and Baylor’s recent struggles to do so are factors to consider for bettors. However, Baylor’s November trends against similar opponents prevent this game from being a one-sided affair.

Considering all angles, this game should be competitive, with Arizona likely edging out Baylor by a narrow margin at home. Expect a moderately paced game, leaning slightly toward the under in total points, influenced by Arizona’s defensive capabilities.

Final Prediction

Arizona Wildcats to win by 6 points.