Austin Peay vs Middle Tennessee prediction and analysis

Matchup Overview

The Austin Peay Governors and the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders kick off their 2025 college football seasons on August 30 at Johnny “Red” Floyd Stadium. Both programs are entering their second years under respective head coaches Jeff Faris (Austin Peay) and Derek Mason (Middle Tennessee), looking to improve upon challenging 2024 campaigns.

Team Analysis

• Austin Peay Governors:
  After earning a playoff berth in 2023 but falling back to a 4-win season last year, Austin Peay enters this season with questions, particularly on offense. Quarterback Austin Smith, who threw for 2,300 yards and 15 touchdowns with nearly 63% completion last year, returns as a steady presence. However, the Governors lost significant skill position production, raising concerns about the receiving and rushing support for Smith. The offensive line, anchored by standout Chandler Kirton—a two-year starter and one of the FCS’s best linemen—remains a bright spot.
• Defensively, Austin Peay has a new coordinator, Greg Jones, and lost much of its veteran tackling core. Davion Hood, with 27 tackles and 2.5 sacks in 2024, and Ellis Ellis Jr., a defensive back with three interceptions, will lead an otherwise inexperienced defense that features many new faces. The rebuilding nature of this unit could prove pivotal against an aggressive Middle Tennessee offense.
• Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders:
  Middle Tennessee comes off a disappointing 3-win season and has struggled to win consistently over recent years, with four wins or fewer in four of the last six seasons. Under Coach Derek Mason, the program hopes to take a step forward this year.
• Quarterback Nicholas Vattiato brings vast experience with over 7,500 career passing yards and 46 touchdowns. Though the Blue Raiders suffered losses in their receiving corps, their running game boasts a solid duo in Jekail Middlebrook and Austin Clemons. Middlebrook’s versatility as both a runner and receiver (22 catches last year) and an improved offensive line featuring Auburn transfer EJ Harris should help the ground game gain efficiency.
• Defensively, the Blue Raiders were among the worst nationally last season, but returning leaders such as defensive end Anthony Bynum (60 tackles, 2.5 sacks), linebacker Brandon Buckner, and defensive back John Howse IV give this group a foundation to build upon. Defensive improvement will be critical for Middle Tennessee’s success in Conference USA.

Key Factors

• Middle Tennessee’s dominance at home vs. non-FBS foes is a notable edge, as they have won their last 10 home games under such conditions.
• Austin Peay’s relative youth, especially on defense, contrasts with Middle Tennessee’s experienced quarterback and strengthened offensive line.
• While Middle Tennessee has struggled lately, Austin Peay’s lack of significant offseason progress suggests the Governors may have similar challenges in 2025.

Prediction Summary

Given Middle Tennessee’s home-field advantage, experienced quarterback play, and a running game poised for better production, they should control the pace against an Austin Peay team still figuring out its identity on both sides of the ball. Austin Peay’s defensive inexperience and offensive uncertainties should allow Middle Tennessee to impose their will, likely producing a decisive result.

Final Prediction: Middle Tennessee wins comfortably by approximately 20 points.