Arkansas vs Tennessee prediction and analysis

Matchup Overview

The Arkansas Razorbacks (2-3) travel to face the Tennessee Volunteers (4-1) on October 11, 2025, at Neyland Stadium. Tennessee enters the game as a 12.5-point favorite with the Over/Under for total points set at 68.5. This SEC clash features contrasting recent forms and statistical trends that could shape the outcome.

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Team Performance and Trends

• Arkansas: The Razorbacks are struggling with a three-game losing skid and have difficulty covering spreads against ranked opponents, going 1-5 against the spread in such games. They have also lost seven consecutive October road games versus AP-ranked teams but have covered the spread in their last five October road games overall, signaling some resilience as underdogs.
• Tennessee: The Volunteers boast a potent offense, leading all FBS teams in scoring with 51 points per game. They have dominated early, scoring 18.6 points per first quarter on average. Tennessee is particularly strong at home, winning 22 straight games at Neyland against non-ranked teams and covering the spread in five of their six October home games.

Key Player Matchups

• Arkansas’ Chris Brazzell II is tied for first in the nation with seven receiving touchdowns, providing a big-play threat that the Volunteers must contain.
• On the other side, Tennessee’s O’Mega Blake leads the SEC with 45 targets, highlighting his central role in an explosive Volunteers offense.

Scoring and Game Flow Insights

• Both teams have been involved in high-scoring affairs, with Tennessee’s last nine games and Arkansas’ last four games going over the expected total points line. This indicates a potential shootout scenario.
• Tennessee tends to jump out fast, winning the first quarter in most recent conference games, while Arkansas has struggled early, often losing the first half in conference play.

Prediction Summary

Given Tennessee’s offensive firepower, strong home performance, and favorable historical trends versus non-ranked teams at Neyland, the Volunteers are well-positioned to continue their momentum. Arkansas, while showing some ability to cover the spread in road games as underdogs, faces a tough challenge containing Tennessee’s high-octane attack. Expect Tennessee to take an early lead and maintain control, although Arkansas’ scoring capability suggests this will not be a blowout. The game should also clear the over, reflecting both teams’ recent scoring patterns.

Final Prediction

Tennessee to win by approximately 14 points. Consider backing Tennessee to cover the 12.5-point spread, with a strong lean toward the over 68.5 total points.