Arkansas vs Ole Miss prediction and analysis

Game Preview

Saturday night will feature an intense SEC clash as the Arkansas Razorbacks visit the Ole Miss Rebels in Oxford. Both teams enter this Week 3 matchup undefeated at 2-0, highlighting their strong starts to the 2025 season. Ole Miss is favored by 7 points in betting markets, with an over/under of 61.5 points, setting the stage for a potentially high-scoring affair.

Key Factors and Team Form

• Ole Miss Offense: The Rebels rank tied for first nationally in fourth-down conversion rate (100%) and are sixth in total yards per game, averaging an impressive 575 yards. Their ability to sustain drives and execute in clutch moments gives them a clear edge in offensive efficiency.
• Arkansas Defense in Critical Quarters: The Razorbacks lead all FBS teams in holding opponents scoreless in both the third and fourth quarters this season. Their defensive resilience late in games will be tested against a prolific Ole Miss offense.
• Quarterback Matchup: Arkansas’ Taylen Green is off to a phenomenal start, ranking tied for first nationally in passing touchdowns with 10 through two games. Ole Miss’s balanced attack will need to contain him to prevent Arkansas from gaining big leads.
• Historical Trends: Ole Miss has dominated September matchups at home, winning 18 of their last 19 September games against non-AP ranked teams and winning the first half in 16 of 18 conference home games—a testament to their strong starts. Conversely, Arkansas has struggled against AP-ranked opponents, losing 10 of their last 11, though they have covered the spread in most September games against ranked competition.
• Betting Tendencies: Despite Ole Miss’s strong home record, the Rebels have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five conference home games. Arkansas has also struggled to cover against ranked foes but has maintained a solid track record in season openers and early September matchups.

Offensive Playmakers

Arkansas’ Kewan Lacy leads the SEC in touchdowns with four, making him a key weapon in the Razorbacks’ scoring arsenal. Ole Miss’s offensive line and dynamic skill players aim to continue their efficient yardage production and capitalize on their team’s high fourth-down conversion rate.

Prediction Summary

This contest features two unbeaten SEC teams with complementary strengths—Ole Miss’s high-powered offense versus Arkansas’ tenacious defensive finishing. Considering Ole Miss’s potent attack, home field advantage, and historical dominance early in conference games, the Rebels hold a slight advantage. However, Arkansas’ dynamic quarterback and their ability to shut down opponents late suggest the Razorbacks will keep it close. Expect a tightly contested, moderately paced game with scoring slightly below the over/under due to defensive stands in crucial moments.

Final Prediction: Ole Miss 31, Arkansas 27. Ole Miss covers the 7-point spread.