Arkansas State vs UL Monroe prediction and analysis
Game Overview
This Week 5 matchup features the Arkansas State Red Wolves visiting the Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks on September 27, 2025, at 3:00 PM EDT. With Arkansas State currently 1-3 and Louisiana-Monroe holding a 2-1 record, both teams are eager to claim an important conference victory. The betting line favors Louisiana-Monroe by 2.5 points with an over/under of 55.5.
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Key Trends and Recent Performance
- Arkansas State struggles on the road in September: The Red Wolves have lost 10 of their last 11 September road games and have failed to cover the spread in their last three road contests this month.
- Louisiana-Monroe’s home dominance in September: The Warhawks have won seven of their last eight home September games, covering the spread each time Arkansas State has been on the road in recent games.
- Conference play dynamics: Louisiana-Monroe enters having lost their last five games against conference foes, while Arkansas State has a strong record against Louisiana teams with six wins in their last eight meetings.
- Spread history: Louisiana-Monroe has not covered the spread in six of their last seven games, whereas Arkansas State has performed well against the spread in recent games versus Louisiana teams.
- Scoring trends: The total points have stayed under in six of Louisiana-Monroe’s last September games as favorites, contrasting with Arkansas State’s last six home games tending to go over the total. This game’s over/under is set at a moderate 55.5.
Statistical Insights
- Offense and Defense: Louisiana-Monroe leads the FBS in red zone scoring efficiency at a perfect 100.0% this season, indicating a high conversion rate inside the 20-yard line.
- Passing struggles: The Warhawks rank near the bottom nationally (tied for 133rd) in passing yards per game (109.0), which may limit big plays through the air.
- Defensive concerns for Arkansas State: The Red Wolves rank 136th nationally in allowing 16.3 opponent points in the first quarter and have a significant -12.8 average point differential in first quarters, suggesting slow starts might put them behind early.
- Players to watch: Avante Dickerson leads the Sun Belt with 2 interceptions, hinting at Arkansas State’s defensive playmaking ability. Louisiana-Monroe’s Hunter Herring leads his team in touchdowns with 2 so far.
Final Analysis
The match-up is a study in contrasts. Arkansas State has been historically weak on the road in early season September games, which could prove problematic given the hostile environment at Malone Stadium. Meanwhile, Louisiana-Monroe is robust at home during September but has struggled in conference play recently, which adds a layer of uncertainty.
Arkansas State’s recent ability to cover spreads against Louisiana teams suggests they won’t be an easy out despite their overall record. However, the Warhawks’ supreme red zone efficiency and home-field advantage may tip the scales.
Considering the moderate line of -2.5 and the tendency for Louisiana-Monroe games to lean towards lower scoring in September, expect a competitive but possibly tight defensive game with limited explosive plays.
Prediction Summary
Expect Louisiana-Monroe to secure a close victory at home, likely capitalizing on their red zone proficiency and strong September form at Malone Stadium. Arkansas State’s early-game struggles on the road will make it difficult to keep pace, but they should keep the game within a one-score margin.
Prediction: Louisiana-Monroe -2.5
