Arkansas State vs Troy prediction and analysis

Matchup Overview

The Arkansas State Red Wolves (4-4) travel to face the Troy Trojans (6-2) on November 1, 2025, at 8:00 PM EDT. Troy enters this game as a 7.5-point favorite with the over/under set at 53 points. This Sun Belt Conference contest features contrasting team trends, offensive and defensive strengths, and notable historical tendencies that will shape the outcome.

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Key Factors and Historical Trends

• Troy’s November Dominance: The Trojans have won each of their last 10 November games when favored against non-AP-ranked teams, showcasing their consistency as favorites late in the season.
• Arkansas State Struggles on November Road Trips: The Red Wolves have dropped five of their last six November road games versus non-AP-ranked foes, indicating difficulty in hostile environments during this stretch of the season.
• Spread Tendencies: The home side has covered the spread in seven of Arkansas State’s last eight games, reinforcing Troy’s ability to protect home advantage. Arkansas State has found it tough to cover on the road recently, particularly against non-AP-ranked teams, with three failures in their last four such attempts.
• Underdog Edge for Arkansas State: Despite overall road struggles, Arkansas State has won each of their last three games as an underdog and has covered the spread in five of their past six games. This suggests the Red Wolves can perform beyond expectations when cast in the underdog role.
• First-Half Performance: Arkansas State has lost the first half in six of their last eight conference road games, which points towards a slow start that could put them behind early.

Statistical Matchups

• Troy’s Fourth-Quarter Prowess: The Trojans boast an impressive average point differential in the fourth quarter (+6.3), ranking 6th nationally among FBS teams. They also average 10.4 fourth-quarter points per game, showcasing their capacity to finish games strongly.
• Defensive Vulnerabilities for Arkansas State: The Red Wolves rank poorly (125th) nationally in rushing yards allowed per game (195.6), indicating a weak run defense. This could be a critical factor if Troy opts to control the clock and assert dominance on the ground.
• Offensive Stagnation for Arkansas State: Arkansas State ranks near the bottom (tied 123rd) in third-quarter points per game (3.4), suggesting halftime adjustments are not translating to offensive effectiveness post-intermission.
• Game Total Trends: Troy’s last nine conference games have predominantly gone over the points total line, while Arkansas State’s recent November road underdog games have leaned under, giving conflicting signals on scoring expectations.

Prediction Summary

Given Troy’s home-field advantage, superior fourth-quarter execution, and Arkansas State’s struggles on the road and in run defense, the Trojans are well positioned to not only win but cover the 7.5-point spread. Troy’s ability to finish strong, combined with Arkansas State’s tendency to start slowly and have difficulty adjusting offensively, will likely create a gap by the game’s end.

The underdog Red Wolves have shown resilience and cover trends, but inconsistencies on defense and offense limit their ceiling. The total points line at 53 is a bit of a toss-up given Troy’s high-scoring trend against conference foes and Arkansas State’s low scoring after halftime.

Final Prediction

Troy to win by 10 points. Prediction: Troy -7.5