Arizona vs Arizona State prediction and analysis
Matchup Overview
The Arizona Wildcats visit the Arizona State Sun Devils in a highly anticipated Week 14 showdown. Both teams come into this rivalry game with momentum—Arizona riding a four-game winning streak and Arizona State on a three-game run. The intensity of this in-state rivalry combined with recent trends and key individual performances makes this a compelling contest to analyze.
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Key Team Trends and Insights
- Arizona State Sun Devils: ASU has been dominant in November historically, boasting an impressive eight-game winning streak in the month. They’ve also been reliable against the spread (ATS), covering in seven of their last eight November games. Despite this strong form, ASU has struggled ATS as a home underdog in their last four games during November.
- Arizona Wildcats: Arizona has shown consistency in November as favorites, winning each of their last eight such games. However, the road has been tough for Arizona, with the Wildcats losing five of their last six visits to Mountain America Stadium and failing to cover the spread in 11 of their last 14 November away games against non-ranked opponents.
- Scoring and Pace: Recent meetings and team performances suggest an offensive shootout, as both Arizona and Arizona State games in November have commonly gone over the total points line. Arizona’s last six road games against non-AP-ranked teams and Arizona State’s last five home games in November have all resulted in games that surpass the point totals.
Individual Player and Tactical Considerations
- Sam Leavitt (Arizona State QB): Leavitt has not thrown an interception in five consecutive games, a streak that leads the FBS, underscoring efficient quarterback play and ball security heading into this matchup.
- Noah Fifita (Arizona QB): A consistent threat, Fifita has passed for multiple touchdowns in six straight games, highlighting Arizona’s offensive potency in the passing game.
- Defensive Strengths: Arizona ranks sixth nationally in both interceptions (16) and passing yards allowed per game (159.7), showcasing a strong secondary that could challenge Arizona State’s aerial efforts. Arizona State, conversely, excels at controlling the clock with the eighth-best time of possession in the FBS, which could help keep Arizona’s high-powered offense off the field.
Betting Trends to Watch
- The road team has covered the spread in each of Arizona State’s last four games, offering some value on the Wildcats as visitors.
- Arizona has struggled to cover the spread in November road games against non-AP teams, suggesting caution despite their favored status.
- Close games are a theme for Arizona State at home this season, with three wins by five points or fewer, hinting at a potentially tight contest.
Prediction Summary
This rivalry game favors no clear runaway winner given the closely matched team currents and solid recent performances. Arizona State’s November dominance and ability to manage the clock will be critical, but Arizona’s passing efficiency and defensive opportunism provide a counterbalance. Expect a competitive and high-scoring affair that sees both teams finding the end zone multiple times.
However, considering Arizona State’s strong November home record and October’s recent trends favoring the road team against ASU, the contest should be decided by a narrow margin. The Wildcats’ vulnerability on the road, especially in November, suggests Arizona State’s experience and home-field edge will be crucial in edging this game.
Final Prediction
Arizona State Sun Devils to win by 3 points, with the game going over the total points line.
