Akron vs Ball State prediction and analysis
Matchup Overview
The Akron Zips (2-5) travel to face the Ball State Cardinals (2-4) on October 18, 2025. Both teams have struggled this season and are looking for a pivotal win. Ball State enters as slight favorites with a -1 point spread, and the total over/under is set at 42.5 points. This game presents a close contest on paper, but deeper trends and situational factors provide insight into potential outcomes.
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Key Team Trends and Performance Metrics
- Akron Road Struggles: Akron has lost each of its last 17 games as a road underdog, highlighting severe difficulties playing away from home in these roles.
- Ball State Home Edge: The home team has won eight of Ball State’s last nine games at Scheumann Stadium, indicating solid home-field advantage.
- Spread and Cover Trends: Ball State has a strong recent history covering the spread at home—10 of their last 11 games at Scheumann Stadium. Conversely, Akron has failed to cover the spread in nine of its last 12 road games against non-ranked teams. However, Akron has covered the spread in each of its last three meetings versus Ball State.
- October Performance Anomalies: Ball State has lost seven of its last nine October games as a home favorite against non-ranked teams and failed to cover the spread nine of 10 October games under those conditions. Akron has generated higher-scoring games on the road as an underdog in October, with six of their last eight such games going over the total points line, opposing Ball State’s tendency for lower-scoring affairs that have gone under the total in seven of their last eight October home favorites games.
- Offensive and Defensive Insights: Ball State’s Qua Ashley leads the team with four touchdowns, and their kick returner Brandon Hills ranks third nationally with 402 kick return yards this season. However, Ball State’s offensive struggles on the road are notable—they have given up three 30+ point losses away from home and been shut down to fewer than five points in three road games. Akron’s offense ranks near the bottom nationally (129th) for points per game but is effective on fourth-down conversions, ranking T-8th in the FBS at 27.3% success against.
Prediction Summary
Despite some worrying trends for Akron, especially as road underdogs, Ball State’s inability to consistently perform in October as a home favorite casts doubts on the Cardinals. Akron’s resilience in their recent head-to-head meetings suggests this game could be closer than the line indicates. Ball State’s home advantage and slight favorite status give them a narrow edge, but the Zips’ knack for covering the spread against Ball State and their decent fourth-down efficiency could keep them competitive.
The matchup likely features a balanced defensive battle and moderate scoring, making the total points likely to fall close to or slightly under the line, given Ball State’s recent October home games trend. Bettors should consider the potential for Akron to cover the spread despite the small point deficit odds.
Final Prediction
Ball State 21, Akron 17
Prediction: Akron +1
