Rising Speculation: Trump’s Interest in Greenland and Other Geopolitical Moves
Increased Speculation on US Actions in Greenland
Following the recent US operation in Venezuela to detain Nicolás Maduro, speculation has surged that former President Trump may attempt to seize Greenland. This speculation is reflected in prediction markets, which have raised the odds of a US move towards Greenland control.
Trump’s Growing Focus on Greenland Acquisition
Trump has shown a renewed interest in Greenland, which is an autonomous Danish territory. Despite Denmark’s clear stance against selling or ceding control of Greenland, the White House has confirmed it is still exploring ways to acquire the island. The administration regards this acquisition as a matter of national security and has not ruled out military options to achieve this objective.
Prediction Market Trends Reflect Increased Odds
Markets like Polymarket suggest roughly an 8% chance that the US will invade Greenland by 2026, with significant trading volumes indicating strong public interest. Meanwhile, Kalshi estimates a 38% likelihood that the US will control some part of Greenland before the end of Trump’s presidential term in 2029. Notably, the peak prediction was nearly 47% shortly after the Venezuelan operation.
Other Geopolitical Bets Beyond Greenland
The interest in US territorial ambitions is not isolated to Greenland. China’s intent toward Taiwan has also attracted substantial betting activity, highlighting the popularity of geopolitical wagers. For instance, a single bet of $37,000 was placed on a Chinese invasion of Taiwan at Polymarket.
Trump’s Interest in the Panama Canal
In addition to Greenland, the Panama Canal has been a focal point for Trump’s geopolitical aspirations. Once controlled by the United States following its construction, the canal was transferred to Panama in 1999. Kalshi currently assigns a 36% probability that Trump might attempt to reclaim the canal by the end of his term in January 2029, up from roughly 29% shortly before Maduro’s detention. This highlights how political events can directly impact market predictions.
