Macau’s Gambling Market Shows Stronger Recovery Than Expected
Macau’s Gambling Market Shows Robust Recovery
Recent analysis by UBS Group AG, a leading global financial institution, reveals that Macau’s casino industry is rebounding more rapidly than initially forecasted. Several financial institutions have updated their predictions upward, reflecting improved performance in the sector.
Predicted Growth in Macau’s Gaming Revenue
UBS now projects that Macau’s total casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) will experience a 9% increase year-over-year in 2025. This is a slight upward adjustment, less than one percent higher than their earlier estimate. The bank highlights that casinos focusing on luxury offerings and high-end experiences are expected to outperform the overall market, driven by consistent reinvestment and strong demand in premium segments.
Despite this positive momentum, revenue levels are still about 16% below those recorded before the pandemic in 2019. UBS foresees GGR continuing to grow by an additional 6% in 2026, although it will remain approximately 11% lower than pre-pandemic figures. For 2027, the forecast has been slightly increased by 2%, expecting a 4% annual growth rate, yet still trailing 7% behind the 2019 numbers.
The bank also anticipates that the mass-market segment of Macau’s casinos will witness revenue growth of 7% in 2025, followed by 6% in 2026, and a further increase of 4% in 2027. Meanwhile, VIP gaming revenue projections have been slightly revised with a 1% decrease in the 2025 growth estimate to 22%, steady growth of 6% in 2026, and a 1% increase adjustment for 2027 predicting a 4% rise.
Factors Driving Significant Growth in 2025
Several major events significantly contributed to the boost in Macau’s gambling revenue throughout the recent months. Notably, the National Games and the Macau Grand Prix attracted large crowds and high spending, especially among premium gamblers. According to research from Citi Research, a division of Citigroup Inc., the betting volume in the premium segment increased by approximately 19% compared to the previous year.
For the first eleven months of 2025, Macau’s gross gaming revenue increased by 8.6%, reaching around $28.1 billion. Analysts expect the positive trend to continue into 2026, backed by a strong schedule of events, benefiting both the mass-market and premium-mass segments.
Although government budget estimates remain conservative relative to private sector forecasts, recent data from November and the Golden Week holiday period have closely matched these consensus expectations, indicating a solid recovery trajectory for Macau’s gambling industry.
