Investment Banks Forecast Strong Growth for Macau Casinos in 2025

Macau’s Casino Industry on the Rise

Macau’s casino sector is showing promising signs of growth, with several investment banks revising their forecasts upwards for revenue and profits through mid-2025. This resurgence is largely fueled by affluent Chinese tourists whose spending power has been bolstered by recent economic and financial developments in the region.

JP Morgan’s Positive Outlook on Macau Gaming Revenue

JP Morgan’s financial analysts have increased their growth projections for Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) in the latter half of 2025. They now anticipate a 13% increase compared to the same period in 2024, marking their third consecutive upward revision in just three months. Following a 4% growth in the first half of the year and consecutive 19% year-over-year gains in June and July, the bank expects GGR to rise by 12% in the third quarter and 16% in the fourth quarter. This momentum is projected to extend into early 2026.

Several broader economic trends contribute to this optimistic outlook. For example, increased liquidity in Hong Kong, evidenced by strong demand for initial public offerings and a significant drop in the Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate, has made accessing Hong Kong dollars easier—currency commonly used for wagering in Macau. Additionally, the Chinese yuan has strengthened about 4% since April, enabling visitors from mainland China to have greater purchasing power. Positive trends in Chinese, Hong Kong, and U.S. stock markets, alongside rising cryptocurrency values, have further lifted consumer confidence among gamblers.

Policy Shifts and High Rollers Fuel Macau’s Gambling Recovery

Morgan Stanley attributes part of Macau’s resurgence to Beijing’s recent adjustments in economic policy, focusing on sustainable and quality growth. This benefits business owners, who represent a significant portion of Macau’s premium mass and VIP clientele. The return of high-profile entertainment events has also helped attract more tourists, which in turn tends to increase spending on both gambling and leisure activities.

The positive financial results have driven substantial gains in casino stocks. Companies such as Sands China, Galaxy Entertainment, MGM China, and SJM Holdings experienced notable rises in Hong Kong trading after July’s GGR exceeded expectations. According to HSBC Global Research, demand from high-end clientele is stronger and expected to be more enduring than initially anticipated, supported by increased travel frequency and higher gambling budgets among premium players. Macau’s total GGR reached MOP 140.9 billion ($17.4 billion) for the first seven months of 2025, up 6.5% from the previous year.

Expectations for the industry’s EBITDA are also improving, with growth accelerating from 5% in the second quarter to an anticipated 16% by the fourth quarter. Analysts believe that despite recent stock price gains, Macau’s casino sector remains undervalued. Leading investment firms concur that both long-term economic transformations and current gambling trends will sustain growth well into the coming year.