Jefferies Confident in Aristocrat’s Continued Market Growth
Jefferies Equity Research recently shared a positive outlook on Aristocrat Leisure’s growth prospects following the company’s presentation at the Australasian Gaming Expo. Analyst Kai Erman highlighted Aristocrat’s strong performance in key regions such as the US and Australia, supported by a compelling portfolio of games.
Strong Sales Momentum in the US with Diverse Game Offerings and Efficient Supply Chains
In the United States, Aristocrat boasts a broad product lineup that has helped maintain the popularity of its Phoenix Link series. Other titles including Spooky Link, Mo Mo Mo Mummy, and Bao Zhao Zhu Fu are also performing well. Erman estimates that Aristocrat could capture around 30% of the outright sales market and hold approximately 40% of the gaming operations share in the region. A newly announced Monopoly-themed game scheduled for release in early 2026 is expected to further enhance its competitive edge.
The company has strategically avoided significant tariff complications by assembling machines domestically in the US and adopting a unique supply chain route that involves shipping products from Australia to Alberta, Canada, before final delivery to the US. Although this path adds roughly two months to the shipping timeframe, it has helped maintain steady product availability.
While demand for gaming in North America fluctuates, Erman observes an encouraging upward trend. Recent adjustments to tax regulations may also promote increased capital investments in the sector. Despite ongoing concerns about potential decreases in consumer spending and tourism impacting venues such as the Las Vegas Strip, Aristocrat’s broad market presence offers a degree of resilience against these challenges.
Aristocrat Captures Half of Australia’s Market, Driven by Popular Baron Cabinet and Multi-Link Games
In Australia, Aristocrat has reclaimed about 50% of the market share, mainly propelled by the success of its Baron cabinet and the widespread acceptance of its multi-link game series. The demand for the Baron cabinet remains robust, and this trend is expected to continue. The company is also preparing for upcoming national slot machine regulations set to take effect in February 2026 with a suite of compliant games already developed.
Company executives disclosed they have accelerated the pace of game development in the latter half of 2025 and intend to maintain this momentum moving forward. Additionally, Aristocrat is optimistic about its new iLottery partnership in Michigan, planned to launch in July 2026.
On the legal front, Aristocrat is intensifying efforts in its ongoing intellectual property dispute against Light & Wonder. The company alleges that Light & Wonder produced certain games using stolen concepts, extending beyond previously contested titles like Dragon Train and Jewel of the Dragon. Aristocrat’s leadership plans to pursue further information through ongoing litigation, which may continue into late 2025.
