Fading Bills Look To Get Well Vs. Browns
(Sports Network) - Oddly enough, a Buffalo Bills team that started the year an impressive 5-1 already finds itself in what is effectively a must-win situation, and it's not even Thanksgiving yet.The Bills, now 5-4 and watching the high ground erode all around them in the crowded AFC East, welcome the Cleveland Browns to Ralph Wilson Stadium on Monday night, and will be looking to serve as rude hosts. Buffalo is mired in a three-game skid including consecutive losses to division foes the Dolphins (25-16), Jets (26-17), and Patriots (20-10). An offense that was a credit to the team in the early-going has been sputtering more often that it has been efficient, and second-year quarterback Trent Edwards hasn't looked anything like the Pro Bowler he seemed close to becoming in September and early October. Edwards has committed seven turnovers (five INT, two fumbles) and thrown just two touchdowns in the past three weeks, and Buffalo is now 24th in the league in total offense (303.8 yards per game) and 20th in scoring offense (21.3 points per game). In last week's loss to New England, the Bills registered their lowest totals of the year in points (10), first downs (10) and yards (168). Meanwhile, the generally stout Buffalo defense of the first six weeks has begun to crumble under the weight of injuries. Top pass rusher Aaron Schobel has missed four straight games with a foot injury, and is not expected to be in the lineup on Monday night. Safety Donte Whitner (shoulder) is questionable for the Cleveland contest after missing last week's game, and his absence would further hamstring a secondary that lost cornerback Ashton Youboty (foot) for the season prior to the New England defeat. The team the Bills will be trying to right the ship against is in even more dire straits. Cleveland dropped to 3-6 with last Thursday's 34-30 home loss to the Broncos, putting the team's hopes of a first playoff berth since 2002 on life support. Quarterback Brady Quinn was unable to engineer a win in his first NFL start, but did have some positive moments in a 23-of-35, 239-yard, two-touchdown passing performance. Quinn will start his first road contest as a pro on Monday, and will need better help from a defense that several members of the Browns, including Jamal Lewis and Joshua Cribbs, publicly suggested didn't play with optimum effort versus Denver. "When you have a team like that that comes into our house and we're capable of beating them, that's the first thing that comes to mind," Cribbs said in comments to ESPN.com. "We can't figure out what man, but that's what it looked like - some guys quit...We know if everybody didn't quit, we would have won that ballgame." SERIES HISTORY Cleveland holds a 8-5 advantage in its all-time regular season series with Buffalo, including a 8-0 home win played in driving snow in Week 15 of last season. Prior to that game, the Bills had won three straight in the series, including a 37-7 home win in the previous matchup in 2004. Cleveland last won in Buffalo in 1986. In addition to their regular-season history, the franchises met in a 1989 AFC Divisional Playoff, won by Cleveland at home by a 34-30 count. Buffalo head coach Dick Jauron is 1-1 in his career against the Browns, with the win coming for his Bears team in 2001. The Browns' Romeo Crennel is 1-0 against both Jauron and the Bills as a head coach. WHEN THE BROWNS HAVE THE BALL While Quinn's performance against the Broncos was encouraging given his lack of experience, what it didn't include was a lot of downfield throwing against the beleaguered Denver secondary. No. 1 wideout and top deep threat Braylon Edwards (27 receptions, 3 TD) caught just one pass for 15 yards in the loss, with Quinn relying more on short routes to tight end Kellen Winslow (36 receptions, 3 TD), who had 10 catches for 111 yards and two touchdowns in what was his best game of the season to date. No. 2 receiver Donte' Stallworth (11 receptions, 1 TD) also contributed four receptions for 48 yards in the loss. The Cleveland running game has struggled for much of the year, with Jamal Lewis' (593 rushing yards, 4 TD, 15 receptions) 19-carry, 60-yard performance against a soft Broncos front seven offering more evidence of that fact. Change-of-pace rusher Jerome Harrison (127 rushing yards, 6 receptions, 1 TD) carried five times for 48 yards in the loss, and might begin to see the ball more frequently if he continues to succeed. Quinn was not sacked against the Broncos, and the Cleveland line has allowed just 11 sacks all year. Putting some pressure on Quinn will be job number one for the Bills, but that will be easier said than done with Schobel again expected to be absent. Buffalo has just 14 sacks on the year, which ranks near the bottom of the league, and managed just one take-down of oft-sacked New England quarterback Matt Cassel last week. Marcus Stroud (26 tackles, 2.5 sacks) leads the Bills in sacks from his interior line position. The lack of a pass rush has had a trickle-down effect for a talented secondary that has nonetheless managed just four interceptions all year, with cornerbacks Jabari Greer (35 tackles, 2 INT) and Terrence McGee (32 tackles, 2 INT) accounting for those. The Bills have just two picks since the start of October. Safety Ko Simpson (41 tackles) has done most of his damage in run support for a team that is 14th in the league against the run (103.9 yards per game) as Week 11 begins, and linebackers Paul Posluzsny (67 tackles) and Kawika Mitchell (51 tackles, 2 INT) have been a factor in the front seven as well. WHEN THE BILLS HAVE THE BALL The struggles of the Buffalo offense can't all be placed at Edwards' feet, as a running game that has yet to produce a 100-yard rusher in 2008 also needs to be called onto the carpet. Marshawn Lynch (512 rushing yards, 6 TD, 27 receptions), who mustered just 46 yards on 14 carries last time out, is the primary component of a Bills running game that ranks just 28th in the league (90.0 yards per game). That situation is putting more pressure on Edwards (1845 passing yards, 7 TD, 7 INT), as well as a Buffalo receiving corps that is banged up heading into Monday. Slot man Josh Reed (26 receptions) will miss his third straight game with Achilles and ankle issues, and rookie James Hardy (9 receptions, 2 TD) is questionable with a hip problem. Lee Evans (37 receptions, 3 TD), who has been seeing regular double-teams, and running mate Roscoe Parrish (17 receptions, 1 TD) will have to pick up the slack. Evans has just six catches totaling 63 yards in his last two games combined. Tight end Robert Royal (25 receptions, 1 TD) has been another middle-of-the-field option for Edwards. The Buffalo offensive line, which has allowed 25 sacks through nine games, has seemed to regress in recent weeks. Lynch should have a strong chance to get that first triple-digit game on Sunday, as two members of the Cleveland run-stopping group, nose tackle Shaun Rogers (neck) and end Corey Williams (shoulder), are regarded as questionable for the contest. Their absence would put pressure on players like much- maligned tackle Shaun Smith (11 tackles) and inside linebackers D'Qwell Jackson (88 tackles, 2 sacks, 1 INT) and Andra Davis (41 tackles) to prop up a Browns defense that is just 26th against the run (145.2 yards per game) as Week 11 commences. The Cleveland pass defense has also had its struggles, as evidenced by Jay Cutler's 447-yard performance last week coupled with the fact that the Browns sacked Cutler just once in more than 40 drop-back attempts. That sack went to Kamerion Wimbley (36 tackles, 2 sacks), while fellow outside linebacker Willie McGinest (21 tackles) ranked among team leaders with seven tackles on the night. Safety Brodney Pool (34 tackles, 2 INT, 1 sack) had an interception in the loss, but cornerback Brandon McDonald (39 tackles, 1 INT) gave up a 93-yard touchdown pass to Eddie Royal and safety Sean Jones (31 tackles) struggled as well. No. 1 corner Eric Wright (36 tackles, 3 INT) is likely to be matched up with Evans on Monday. FANTASY FOCUS Quinn's performance against the Broncos might make him worth considering for fantasy owners desperate for QB help, but remember that his strong outing came against one of the worst defenses in the league. His numbers are bound to take a bit of a hit in Buffalo, though Winslow is still a must-start and Edwards figures to bounce back from an invisible showing against the Broncos. Lewis is not a great running back option due to his inconsistency and the fact that he rarely scores. Kicker Phil Dawson will probably help you on Monday, but the Cleveland defense should remain on the waiver wire. On the Buffalo side, players like Edwards, Lynch, Evans, and Royal could be worth elevating from backup status due to the favorable matchup against a weak Cleveland "D". Kicker Rian Lindell is also worthy of starting status, but a Bills defense that doesn't make many big plays is not. OVERALL ANALYSIS It wasn't so long ago that the Bills looked to be on a collision course with the playoffs, but three straight division losses have abruptly dropped Jauron and company to the bottom of the AFC East power poll. Whether Buffalo can collect itself and make another push toward the postseason is debatable, but what is not is that a desperate team should play with a great deal of intensity on Monday night in order to get back into the win column. Meanwhile, intensity has hardly been the Browns' forte this season, and the team's extreme long shot status in the playoff chase does not figure to light a fire under a team with a questionable attitude and character to begin with. Cleveland is talented enough to keep it close, but will fade in the fourth quarter much like last week. Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Bills 19, Browns 16
Copyright 2008 Courtesy of The Sports Network.








