AXNT20 KNHC 191805 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST WED NOV 19 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE LINE CURVING FROM 15N49W TO 10N51W TO 5N51W. THE WAVE POSITION HAD TO BE ADJUSTED FROM THE LAST MAP ANALYSIS IN ORDER TO AGREE WITH THE CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 47W AND 51W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 74W/75W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. A LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC SWIRL IS NEAR 17.5N75W. BROAD SURFACE TO LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS OBSERVED IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD. DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. ...THE ITCZ... 10N12W 9N30W 9N49W 9N53W 7N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 28W AND 40W...AND FROM 7N TO 13N BETWEEN 50W AND 61W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. THIS WESTERLY FLOW IS A COMBINATION OF RESIDUAL WESTERLY FLOW AT THE TAIL END OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE INTERIOR U.S.A. AND SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONTS THAT HAVE PASSED THROUGH THE AREA...AND BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT EMANATES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN AND MOVES ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE CROOKED ISLAND PASSAGE IN THE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N75W TO CUBA NEAR 22N80W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N90W TO THE MATAGORDA BAY AREA ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH NORTHWESTERN HAITI TO EASTERN JAMAICA TO 16N80W TO COSTA RICA NEAR 9N84W. NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WITH THE MAIN SUPPORT TROUGH IS NORTH OF THE LINE FROM EASTERN HONDURAS TO JAMAICA BEYOND NORTHERN HAITI. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE EAST OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 14N71W. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM VENEZUELA TO 17N BETWEEN 66W AND 73W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 66W AND 67W. DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM THE VENEZUELA COAST TO 16N BETWEEN 62W AND 73W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW TO THE EAST OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW MAY BE ENHANCING THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ALSO. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N62W TO 25N70W TO THE CROOKED ISLAND PASSAGE IN THE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N75W TO CUBA NEAR 22N80W. THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N59W TO 24N66W TO NORTHWESTERN HAITI. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N56W TO 25N64W TO THE NORTHERN HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE SAME 32N56W 25N64W LINE NORTH OF 26N. A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 31N42W. A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 28N46W. THESE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS ARE PART OF THE SAME DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC SYSTEM THAT HAS PERSISTED IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN FOR THE LAST WEEK OR SO. A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS ALSO ALONG 22N35W 26N33W 31N35W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 28W AND 40W. $$ MT
