Hurricane Earl weakens to Tropical Storm - heads for Canada

11:01p Friday - Earl now a tropical storm - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/032340.shtml?

8:00p Friday - Earl made its closest pass to Ocean City at about noon today - the center staying roughly 200 miles off the beach. Great image here: http://bit.ly/a8cUgB

7:45p Friday - Surf forecast for Ocean City this weekend: 8-10 feet Friday falling to only  2-4 feet Saturday into Sunday...

6:05pm Friday - All hurricane and tropical storm advisories now dropped for coastal Maryland, Delaware and Virginia.

5:15pm Friday - Latest on Earl from the National Hurricane Center: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/032037.shtml?

11:14am Friday - Hurricane Earl has weakened to a Category 1 storm as it heads for the Northeast and some watches and warnings have been issued from Long Island to Maine.

9:20am Friday -  The National Weather Service says conditions should improve later this morning in the Outer Banks. Tropical storm force winds will remain in the area as Hurricane Earl pushed Northeast past Ocean City, MD.

6:18am Friday:  The National Weather Service says there is a 47% chance of Tropical Storm conditions in Ocean City.

6:14am Friday:  Earl will pass by Maryland between 10 AM and 1 PM. The Balitmore area will experience a partly to mostly cloudy sky and maybe a few sprinkles with winds under 15 mph. Ocean City will have 20-40 mph winds with a few gusts to 50 mph and possibly up to 1/2" to 1" of rain. The further east you travel the more rain and wind is what can be expected.

5:51am Friday: The National Weather Service canceled the Hurricane Watch for Ocean City, but a Tropical Storm warning remains in effect.

4:30am Friday - Check out our mobile news gathering BETA test . We've outfitted multiple reporters will smart phones and they're streaming live video back from Ocean City from time to time. You can stay on this page to look for live reports , or watch archived video clips. This is an example of the latest technology in news gathering ! Tell us what you think!
 

2:42am Friday: From the National Weather Service:

PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS :  THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS VERY SMALL. ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS
UP TO 64 PERCENT.

WINDS:  AS HURRICANE EARL APPROACHES...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN BEFORE DAWN THIS MORNING...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH. WINDS FARTHER INLAND WILL
BE SIGNIFICANTLY LIGHTER.  MINOR DAMAGE MAY OCCUR TO OLDER MOBILE HOMES. RESIDENTS SHOULD MOVE LOOSE ITEMS INDOORS...SUCH AS GARBAGE CANS AND OUTDOOR FURNITURE...AS THEY WILL BE BLOWN AROUND. NEWLY PLANTED OR YOUNG TREES AND SHRUBS MAY BE UPROOTED IF NOT SECURED PROPERLY. ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE:  ALTHOUGH THE CORE OF HURRICANE EARL IS FORECAST TO PASS WELL EAST OF THE AREA...STORM SURGES BETWEEN 1 AND 2 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL ARE EXPECTED. WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A MAXIMUM STORM TIDE BETWEEN 3 TO 4 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL. THIS WOULD REPRESENT MINOR TO AREAS OF MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING. THE GREATEST RISK OF COASTAL FLOODING AS A RESULT WILL BE DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES EARLY THIS MORNING AND ONCE AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

COASTAL HAZARDS:  SIGNIFICANT SWELLS WILL BRING AN HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS TODAY. BEACH GOERS ARE ADVISED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER DUE TO THE ROUGH SURF. LARGE BREAKING WAVES WILL ALSO LIKELY PEAK BETWEEN 15 AND 20 FEET ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE ANTICIPATED STORM SURGE COMBINED WITH THE HIGH SURF WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION AND OVERWASH ISSUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.

11:45pm Thursday: MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 105HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT EARL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A LARGE AND STRONG HURRICANE AS IT PASSES NEAR THE OUTER BANKS.

  11:01pm Thursday: ...CENTER OF EARL PASSING JUST EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS...NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR NEW ENGLAND - OCEAN CITY AND DE REMAIN UNDER TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND HURRICANE WATCH... http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/030238.shtml?

10:27pm Thursday: The eye of Earl to pass just offshore of O.C. - storm will continue to weaken as it gets closer to Maryland in cooler waters.  The most critical time period will be from now until 5pm or so Friday... stay tuned!

9:07pm Thursday: Earl's latest track map: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/222255.shtml?3-daynl?large#contents

8:06pm Thursday: Earl's latest advisory: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/022356.shtml?

7:05pm Thursday: Maryland-Delaware - Surfline Forecast for Friday: http://www.surfline.com/surf-forecasts/northeast/maryland-delaware_2148

6:04pm Thursday: Cool Satellite Image of Earl: http://media2.abc2news.com/weatherimages/Wyatt_WebWX_PM.JPG

5:05pm Thursday:  Hurricane Earl is weakening slightly as it heads toward North Carolina's Outer Banks, but forecasters say it's still a dangerous hurricane with winds of 115 mph. The National Hurricane Center says bands of rain and gusty winds are already approaching the Outer Banks. Earl's eye is expected to pass near there on Thursday night and New England Friday night. Hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings are in effect

along the Eastern Seaboard from North Carolina all the way to Canada. Earl is about 185 miles south of Cape Hatteras, N.C., and 670 miles south-southwest of Nantucket, Mass.

(Copyright 2010 by The Associated Press. All Rights Reserved.)

4:00 Thursday: Maryland beaches close to swimmers.

3:34pm Thursday: In Ocean City right now, the water is getting rougher.  We should see 10 foot waves Friday morning. All of this will make beach erosion a major concern.   

2:16pm Thursday: Hurricane Earl is weakening slightly but it's still packing winds near 125 mph as it blows toward North Carolina's coast.

Earl is now a Category 3 hurricane, and it's expected to pass the Outer Banks of North Carolina as a powerful storm tonight. The Canadian Hurricane Centre has added a hurricane watch for Nova Scotia to the long list of warnings and watches in effect for a huge swath of the U.S. East Coast.

Federal Emergency Management Agency Administrator Craig Fugate says residents and tourists can no longer afford to wait on the next forecast to see how close the eye of the storm might get.

(Copyright 2010 by The Associated Press. All Rights Reserved.)

11:13am Thursday:  A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING. A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS IN EFFECT.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 145 MPH...230 WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO START LATER TODAY...BUT EARL IS EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE WHEN IT PASSES NEAR THE OUTER BANKS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER DATA IS 932 MB.  

8:47am Thursday:   Looking at the forecast for the eye of Hurricane Earl off of the Maryland coast, it reminded me of the eye that developed from our last blizzard on February 10th this year. Click the PHOTO tab at the right to see how they compare.

This image shows the comparison, which is not exactly the same spot, and definitely not the same set up, but does support my theory of 'Atmospheric Memory'. A major storm leaves an invisible impression on the atmosphere like a void or bowl that wants to full back in. I have noticed this as hurricane tracks can mimick winter nor'easter tracks or vice versa within a year of each other.

While these are two different event with different pasts, it does show that extremes do bread extremes. The pedullum swings far both ways sometimes. After our record winter snowfalls, we had what appears to be a record hot summer. Now a major hurricane in the same region of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast US. Figuring out patterns is a big part of forecasting. See more on Hurricane Earl and the busy tropics here:

Hurricane Earl - Click here for the latest from the National Hurricane Center

8:04am Thursday: A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected in the next 36 hours.  Tropical storm conditions are sustained winds of 39 to 73 miles per hour.

5:00a- Thursday: Hurricane Earl is stronger this morining. Winds up to 145 mph

11:05p Wednesday: Latest Projected Track of Earl: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/031256.shtml?3-daynl?large#contents

11:00p Wednesday: Latest update from the National Hurricane Center on Earl:  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/012347.shtml?

10:05p Wednesday: What does a "Category 4" hurricane really mean?  A great explanation on storm strength and the Saffir-Simpson scale from NOAA here:  http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/satellite/satelliteseye/educational/saffir.html

9:15p Wednesday: OC surf forecast - updated:

4-7 ft Rising SE swell with bigger sets showing in PM on Thursday.

8-10 ft Solid SE/SSE swell with bigger sets at the spots that can handle it; Earl closely passes; surf conditions may get slightly less radical by the end of the day

8:01p Wednesday: 8PM update from the National Hurricane Center - Earl still a Category 4 storm and essentially unchanged: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/012347.shtml?

7:01p Wednesday: Latest batch of forecast graphics from the National Hurricane Center, track still far to close for comfort to Maryland! http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/212340.shtml?3-daynl

6:35p Wednesday:   Delaware, Maryland and Virginia coasts all now under a Tropical Storm Warning as well as a Hurricane Watch: http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=DEZ004&warncounty=DEC005&firewxzone=DEZ004&local_place1=Fenwick+Island+DE&product1=Tropical+Storm+Warning

3:15p Wednesday: Ocean City now with a 40-70% chance of experiencing Tropical Storm Force winds (39-73 mph) on Friday.  Wind forecast map here: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/152331.shtml?tswind120#contents

1:51p Wednesday: Take a look at Earl from space.  Click here to see what the storm looks like from space.

12:04p Wednesday:  Here are more details from the National Weather Service. 

WINDS : AS HURRICANE EARL MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED HIGH WINDS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE. THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FROM EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. A GENERAL CONCERN SHOULD BE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE DAMAGE SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE AREA. SINCE THERE IS STILL  UNCERTAINTY...CLOSELY MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE:  IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE EXACT HEIGHTS OF COMBINED STORM SURGE AND TIDE WATERS FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA TO BE CAUSED BY HURRICANE EARL. MUCH DEPENDS ON THE PRECISE SIZE...INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS A GENERAL CONCERN FOR THE CHANCE OF MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING ON FRIDAY.

COASTAL HAZARDS: THERE WILL BE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AT AREA
BEACHES. BEACH GOERS ARE URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER. HIGH SURF IS EXPECTED MAINLY FRIDAY...AND MINOR TO MODERATE BEACH EROSION IS ALSO EXPECTED MAINLY FRIDAY.

11:00a Wednesday: A Hurricane Watch has been issued for Ocean City and the Delaware beaches.  A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions could be felt within 48 hours.

10:07a- Wednesday:  Waiting for the update from NHC. But the models continue to show a close pass of the eye by Cape Hatteras and then a curve away from the coast.  Ocean City should get Tropical Storm conditions with winds 40-60 mph and 10-20 foot waves.  The worst part will be Friday morning.  Meanwhile in Baltimore, it will hardly be noticed.

8:37am - Wednesday - Check out this hurricane tracking chart for the Atlantic Basin. You can print this map out and chart Hurricane Earl's progress as the storm moves closer to Ocean City. ( DOWNLOAD HERE )

6:41am - Wednesday - Winds at the beach are expected to be between 45-65 mph, but all depending on the precise path of the storm.

4:37am - Wednesday: Hurricane Earl is a major hurricane. The forecast track from the National Hurricane Center places it off of the east coast, just a few hundred miles from Ocean City by Friday morning.

12:01am - Wednesday: Latest 5 Day track here - the left edge of the cone looks just as omimous for interests in the Outer Banks of North Carolina: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?5-daynl?large#contents