CLEVELAND - There are three agencies around the globe that are the keepers of global temperature numbers. The first is NASA. The second is the University of Huntsville in Alabama (satellite temperature records). The third is the University of East Anglia's Climate Research Unit, the UK Met, as it is known.
Last week, the UK Met released its latest global temperature data to the world. It shows that the Earth has not warmed in 15 years. The warming ceased after the great super El Nino of 1998.
The numbers are based on readings from more than 30,000 measuring stations around the planet. The data was quietly released last week without fanfare and it confirms that the rising trend in world temperatures ended in 1997.
So, what does this mean for those scientists advocating the Global Warming/Climate Change Theory? In 2007, the UK Met Office claimed that global warming was about to "come roaring back." It said that between 2004 and 2014 there would be an overall increase in global temperature of 0.3C.
In 2009, it predicted that at least three of the years 2009 to 2014 would break the previous temperature record set in 1998. This has not happened.
These warming predictions are based on the outputs of computer forecast known as Global Climate Models (GCMs). None of the GCMs have seen nor predicted the lack of warming over the past 15 years, even as CO2 levels continue to rise.
The Met Office was relying on the same computer models that are being undermined by the current pause in global-warming.
Dr. Nicola Scafetta, of Duke University in North Carolina, is the author of several peer-reviewed papers on GCMs. He argues the Met Office climate models show there should have been "steady warming from 2000 until now."
"If temperatures continue to stay flat or start to cool again," Scafetta said, "the divergence between the models and recorded data will eventually become so great that the whole scientific community will question the current theories."
Professor Judith Curry agrees. She is one of America’s most eminent climate experts and works at the Georgia Institute of Technology. She argued it is becoming evident that factors other than CO2 play an important role in rising or falling warmth, such as the 60-year water temperature cycles in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans.
"The responsible thing to do would be to accept the fact that the models may have severe shortcomings," Curry said. As for the lack of warmer in the last 15 years, she said that many scientists "are not surprised."
"When both oceans were cold in the past, such as from 1940 to 1970, the climate cooled," Curry said. "The Pacific cycle ‘flipped’ back from warm to cold mode in 2008 and the Atlantic is also thought likely to flip in the next few years."
Pal Brekke, senior adviser at the Norwegian Space Centre, said some scientists underestimate the importance of water cycles when considering global temperature trends.
"Doing so means admitting that the oceans - not CO2 - caused much of the global warming between 1970 and 1997," Brekke said.
The UK Met office disagrees, saying according to their numbers, the decade of the 2000's was the warmest on record and they believe the warming will continue soon. "What is absolutely clear is that we have continued to see a trend of warming, with the decade of 2000-2009 being clearly the warmest in the instrumental record going back to 1850. The ten year projection remains groundbreaking science. The complete period for the original projection is not over yet and these projections are regularly updated to take account of the most recent data."
"We’re now well into the second decade of the pause,’ said Benny Peiser, director of the Global Warming Policy Foundation. "If we don’t see convincing evidence of global warming by 2015, it will start to become clear whether the models are bunk. And, if they are, the implications for some scientists could be very serious."
Read the UK Met's full response to the UK Daily Mail article HERE .
(h/t to UK Mail & Joe D'Alio, WeatherBell Analytics)
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