Drought in northern Ohio here to stay

CLEVELAND - As we were first to tell you, Northern Ohio is officially in a drought.

Cities from Conneaut to Cleveland to Copley, from Mansfield to Marshallville to Millersburg, all considered in a moderate drought as of June 9. It’s worse from Canton to Canfield, where severe drought conditions now exist.

So, now we look for relief. Each day without moisture adds to the rainfall deficit and worsens the drought. We need between 5 and 8 inches of rain to end our drought right now. Since we average between 3 and 4 inches of rainfall per month during the summer, we would need precipitation to average well above normal for the next couple of months to end the dry spell. The question now: Is rainfall on the way or is the drought here to stay?

Let’s look at some extended forecasts. First, the precipitation forecast for July. The orange color on the map means below normal rainfall. Notice in Figure 1, the orange covering Northern Ohio. That means we will stay drier than normal for July.

August shows an even drier picture. According to the extended forecast (Figure 2), August will see less rain than July. The drought continues.

The last month to look at for summer 2012 is September. Once again, in Figure 3, Ohio is orange. That means less rain than normal is predicted as summer ends and your kids go back to school.

Bottom line: As of now, it looks like our drought will continue through the summer and into fall 2012. Of course, there are a few wild cards. Hurricanes that form in the Gulf of Mexico are known as drought-busters. If a weakening hurricane moves north toward Ohio, that could provide the rainfall needed to end our dryness early, before the start of fall. The other possibility: The persistent atmospheric patterns that created this drought shift a bit. Those pattern shifts would not be detected yet by our long range forecast.

My advice, right now, is to keep the lawns and gardens watered and to get ready for that large water bill. I'll keep you posted.