earl now a tropical storm, wind and rain for New England

CLEVELAND - OVERNIGHT UPDATE: EARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 25 MPH...41 KM/HR...AND A GENERAL
NORTHEASTWARD OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...EARL WILL PASS OFFSHORE OF CAPE COD OVERNIGHT AND REACH THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

EARL IS A LARGE TROPICAL STORM. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 958 MB...28.29 INCHES.

 

9pm Friday UPDATE: AT 900 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.8 WEST. EARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR. AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...EARL WILL BE VERY NEAR OR JUST EAST OF CAPE COD LATER TONIGHT AND REACH THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST...BUT EARL IS EXPECTED REMAIN A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 961 MB...28.38 INCHES.

5pm Friday  UPDATE: Earl still a weak Hurricane with winds to 80mph. Should reach Cape Cod around midnight.

4:30pm Friday UPDATE: Earl will likely weaken to a Tropical Storm by the time it reaches Nantucket/Cape Cod around midnight tonight.

4pm Friday UPDATE: The center of Hurricane Earl was located roughly 240 miles to the SSW of Nantucket. Maximum sustained winds are now down to 80 mph. Movement has now increased to NNE at 20 mph. IR and Visible Satellites over the past several hours has shown Earl to remain organized but eroding on the south and southeast side with some drier air trying to creep in there. The eye is not discernible.
   Earl is now completely embedded in the southwesterly wind flow and will begin to pick up speed. Movement will remain to the north-northeast for remainder of Earl’s tropical life. Early is barely a Category 1 Hurricane at the present time. Hurricane Warnings remain in effect for Nantucket and the Cape Cod area. Earl is expected to past just to the east of Nantucket by Midnight tonight, however, with Earl moving into cooler and cooler waters and the storm now barely a Category 1, Earl may only pass by as a Tropical Storm. The hurricane models continue to waver little through late morning Saturday. By then, the NHC official track carries the remains over Newfoundland and into the North Atlantic. Almost done with Earl!
Still a chance for some Hurricane Gusts in/around Nantucket tonight, otherwise moderate to strong Tropical Storm force winds likely. Even when Earl was passing fairly close to Cape Hatteras, the highest sustained winds were barely Hurricane force. The more threatening danger will be with storm surges of 1-3 feet along Nantucket’s south to east facing shores. As Earl weakens tomorrow and moves into the Bay of Fundy, tropical storm force winds may be felt along eastern Maine’s coast.

3pm UPDATE: Winds, waves and rain bands arrive on Long Island. Earl a category 1 storm with winds to 80 mph. Center will come close to Nantucket and Chatham, Mass. tonight.

11:00 a.m. Friday Update

Hurricane Earl:

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 36.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.1 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR. AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ARE EXPECTED IN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS
TODAY...AND APPROACH SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. WEAKENING IS FORECAST...BUT EARL IS EXPECTED
REMAIN A LARGE HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE WAS
961 MB...28.38 INCHES.

Tropical Storm Fiona:

AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FIONA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.4 WEST. FIONA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH
SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF FIONA SHOULD BE NEAR BERMUDA EARLY
SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND FIONA COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY
LATE SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES.
 

8:00 a.m. Friday Update:

AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 36.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.6 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ARE EXPECTED IN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL
WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS TODAY...AND WILL
APPROACH SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...BUT EARL IS EXPECTED REMAIN A LARGE
HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM. DARE COUNTY REGIONAL AIRPORT NORTH CAROLINA JUST
REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 70 MPH...113 KM/HR.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB...28.20 INCHES.
 

OVERNIGHT UPDATE: CENTER OF EARL PASSING JUST EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS...NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR NEW ENGLAND... AT 1100 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.4 WEST. EARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL WILL PASS NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS TONIGHT...AND WILL APPROACH SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT. DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...BUT EARL IS EXPECTED REMAIN A LARGE HURRICANE AS IT PASSES NEAR THE OUTER BANKS AND APPROACHES SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 951 MB...28.08 INCHES.

INDS...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE OUTER BANKS OVERNIGHT. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH THE COAST FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO MASSACHUSETTS ON FRIDAY...AND SPREAD OVER THE COAST OF MAINE WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN MASSACHUSETTS FRIDAY NIGHT.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA OVER NORTH CAROLINA...AS WELL AS IN THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY. STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA OVER MASSACHUSETTS. ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA...STORM SURGE WILL
RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL.NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES...OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS. ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES... ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND. ACCUMULATIONS OF
1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA NORTHWARD ALONG THE IMMEDIATE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...AS WELL AS OVER DOWNEAST MAINE.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS FROM EARL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH FRIDAY...AND BEGIN TO SUBSIDE IN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS OVERNIGHT. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS.
 

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS
* WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS EASTWARD AROUND CAPE COD TO HULL MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET ISLAND

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN
DELAWARE
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM MEDWAY HARBOUR TO DIGBY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET EASTWARD ON THE SOUTH SHORE AND PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR EASTWARD ON THE NORTH SHORE
* NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT TO WEST OF WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS... INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND
* NORTH OF HULL MASSACHUSETTS TO THE MERRIMACK RIVER
* STONINGTON MAINE EASTWARD TO EASTPORT MAINE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER TO WEST OF STONINGTON MAINE
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET ON THE SOUTH SHORE AND WEST OF PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR ON THE NORTH SHORE
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U.S./CANADA BORDER EASTWARD TO FORT LAWRENCE AND FROM TIDNISH WESTWARD TO SHEDIAC
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE SOUTHWESTWARD TO DIGBY...MEDWAY HARBOUR NORTHEASTWARD TO POINT TUPPER...AND AULDS COVE WESTWARD TO TIDNISH
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

10pm UPDATE: There are reports of over-wash on the main highway along the Outer Banks in North Carolina. This is Highway 12 on Ocracoke. Earlier today, crews were pushing the water and sand off the roadway on Hatteras. As the storm moved in, down, those crews stopped work.
But the NC-DOT has equipment staged along the highway and are ready to deploy as soon as it is safe to do so.

9:30pm UPDATE: NC Gov. Beverly Perdue says residents who chose to stay on North Carolina's barrier islands are on their own should they need immediate help when Hurricane Earl arrives.

9pm UPDATE: It looks like the famous Frisco Pier on Hatteras Island has not survived Hurricane Earl's strong seas. A Hatteras resident took this photo of the pier earlier tonight, and we're now told the pier has collapsed. The pier was heavily damaged during Hurricane Isabel in 2003.

8:20pm UPDATE: Tropical Storm force winds (40+mph) now onshore near Cape Hatteras, NC. The eye of the hurricane is expected to get as close as 55 miles east of the Outer Banks at about 2 a.m. Friday. The coast is expected to be lashed by winds of more than 74 mph for a couple of hours.

8pm UPDATE:   Hurricane Earl now a Category 2 storm with maximum sustained winds down to 110 mph, with gusts to 140mph. Moving north at 18mph. Annapolis, Md deploying sandbags to keep flooding to a minimum as Earl moves by.

5:45pm UPDATE: Tropical Storm FIONA will move north over Bermuda by Saturday afternoon. Maximum sustained winds will remain below hurricane force (74mph) through the weekend.

5:30pm UPDATE: Gaston Gone! Tropical Storm Gaston has weakened back into a tropical depression in the easten Atlantic. Strengthening is not likely.

LATEST NHC DISCUSSION ON HURRICANE EARL: AT 500 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.2 WEST. EARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR BUT A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK... THE CENTER OF EARL WILL PASS NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS TONIGHT...AND APPROACH SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS NOW A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING
IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT EARL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A LARGE AND STRONG HURRICANE AS IT PASSES NEAR THE OUTER BANKS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM. LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 947 MB...27.96 INCHES.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA SOON. EVEN IF THE CENTER OF EARL REMAINS OFFSHORE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THE OUTER BANKS BY TONIGHT. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH THE COAST FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO MASSACHUSETTS ON FRIDAY.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA OVER NORTH CAROLINA AND THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY. STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA OVER MASSACHUSETTS.  ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL.  NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

RAINFALL...ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...THE OUTER BANKS AND OVER SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.  ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM EXTREME SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA NORTHWARD ALONG THE IMMEDIATE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...AS WELL AS OVER DOWNEAST MAINE.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS FROM EARL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE BAHAMAS AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS.

5pm UPDATE: Earl weakens further. Still a Category 3 storm. Maximum sustained winds fall to 115 mph hour as new eye forms in the center of Earl. The last ferries pulled away from North Carolina's vulnerable barrier islands as Hurricane Earl spun closer with winds near 125 mph, putting the East Coast all the way to Canada on alert for what could be a blustery next several days.

A hurricane warning was issued for the tip of Massachusetts, including Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard. New hurricane and tropical storm warnings and watches were issued for parts of Canada, adding to those already in effect from North Carolina to near the Canadian border.

With winds expected to whip up in North Carolina's Outer Banks by Thursday evening, Federal Emergency Management Agency Administrator Craig Fugate said residents and tourists could no longer afford to wait on the next forecast to see how close the eye of the storm might get.

4:20pm UPDATE: Long Island bracing for Earl. The village of Montauk sits over a hundred miles east of New York City - the low lying town, prone to flooding will be long island's closest point to the storm center. While the town of East Hampton distributed warning flyers to local hotels, there were still no plans to evacuate. Visitors are debating whether they should stay and ride out the storm or head back to the city. The eastern south shore of Suffolk County could bear the brunt of this storm. Suffolk officials say there are no plans to evacuate Fire Island, which is accessible only by boat. Ferries are still shuttling people back and forth. Hotels like the Holiday Inn in Centereach have back up generators ready to go. There are 50 Red Cross shelters across Long Island that could house up to 60,000 Long Islanders in an emergency. The Long Island Power Authority said it's bringing in 1,600 line workers from out of state to supplement its own force of 500 workers.

4:15pm UPDATE: Boston prepares for Earl. Officials in New England's coastal areas are bracing for high seas, heavy rains and strong winds as Hurricane Earl approaches the region.
A hurricane warning has been issued for the Massachusetts coast from Westport to Hull, including Cape Cod and the Islands. A tropical storm warning is in effect from New Haven, Conn., to Westport, Mass., including Block Island. A tropical storm watch is in effect from Hull, Mass., to Eastport, Maine.

4pm UPDATE: Earl still large and intense. IR and Visible satellites over the past several hours has shown Earl to grow some and become impressive in size. The eye was discernible early today. With a likely eye wall replacement cycle underway, there is now a small central dense overcast layer where the clear eye used to be. Little wind shear is occurring presently. However, now that the steering ridge to the southeast and a trough to the west are rapidly approaching, Earl should begin to undergo some shear tonight. The nearest buoys are still will outside the higher winds but wave heights (80-100 miles from the center) are reporting 12-19 feet.

Earl is moving North now and expected to turn slightly east of north this evening and then north-northeast tomorrow morning as the trough plays a large influence. With that said, Earl has reached to peak intensity earlier this morning. The hurricane models have wavered very little with the forecast track over the life of this storm. The consensus path keeps the center about 50 to 70 miles east of cape Hatteras tonight. However, once Earl reaches the Canadian Maritime mid morning Saturday, the models begin to flair and diverge significantly as what usually happens when a storm becomes extratropical and gets absorbed by the long wave.
With the path that the computers are forecasting, I would expect Hurricane force winds to affect some regions of the Outer Banks to abound 30 miles inland by late this evening and, since Earl has grown some, Tropical storm force winds to extend well inland morning Friday. As Earl weakens tomorrow and next few days, it will still remain a threat, especially along the southeast New England coast with category 1 hurricane forces anticipated (Friday Evening) Heaviest rainfall with the system will be along the immediate east coast along a line from Wilmington NC to Norfolk VA (4-8”) then around eastern Long Island and southeast New England (3-6”) and the southern Canadian Maritimes, however by then the storm will be moving briskly and rainfall likely limited to just a few inches. As always, storm surges will pose the larger danger with the northern edge of the Outer Banks and southern/western shore of inland rivers/sounds.

 

3pm Thursday UPDATE: Earl weakens slightly; still a major storm.  Earl has weakened to a Category 3 Hurricane with maximum sustained winds near 120 mph. Center is currently located 263 miles due south of Nags Head, NC. Movement is slightly west of north at 10 mph.

1:00 p.m. Thursday Update:

Since the last update...

Tropical Storm Fiona is headed toward Bermuda Saturday.  The Tropical Storm Watch has now been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning for the island. 

Tropical Storm Gaston has been downgraded to a Tropical Depression, with winds of 35 mph.  Don't write off Gaston yet... It will be a player next week as a hurricane. 

The latest statement on Hurricane Earl follows:

11:00 a.m. Thursday Update:

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 30.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.8 WEST. EARL IS NOW MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL WILL PASS NEAR
THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS TONIGHT...AND APPROACH SOUTHEASTERN
NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED
TODAY...BUT GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN ON FRIDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230
MILES...370 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 932 MB...27.52 INCHES.

 

8:00 a.m. Thursday Update:

HURRICANE EARL:

AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 30.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.8 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR BUT A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH IS EXPECTED SOON. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND
AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL WILL PASS NEAR THE NORTH
CAROLINA OUTER BANKS TONIGHT...AND BE VERY NEAR SOUTHEASTERN NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED TO START LATER TODAY...BUT EARL IS EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR
HURRICANE WHEN IT PASSES NEAR THE OUTER BANKS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230
MILES...370 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER
DATA IS 932 MB...27.52 INCHES.

 

TROPICAL STORM FIONA:

AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FIONA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.5 WEST. FIONA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL
MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY...
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH LATER TONIGHT...AND A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...FIONA IS
EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR BERMUDA EARLY SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...
185 KM...EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

 

TROPICAL STORM GASTON:

AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GASTON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.2 WEST. GASTON IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
 

 __________________

LARGE AND DANGEROUS HURRICANE EARL THREATENING THE U.S. MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.8 WEST. EARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A TURN TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL APPROACH THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY LATE THURSDAY...AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY NIGHT. THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OFFSHORE OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA ON FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS ANTICIPATED THEREAFTER. EARL IS A LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS IS 932 MB...27.52 INCHES.

 

LATEST ON TS FIONA: AT 1100 PM AST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FIONA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.1 WEST. FIONA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

 

LATEST ON TS GASTON: AT 1100 PM AST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GASTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.7 WEST. GASTON IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

 

Will Earl disrupt the US Open? A tropical storm watch is in effect for all five New York boroughs and the surrounding metropolitan area for Friday and Friday evening in anticipation of approaching Hurricane Earl.
The U.S. Open is well under way, and hot, humid weather at Flushing Meadows-Corona Park will eventually give way to cooler, rainy and windy conditions as Hurricane Earl approaches.
High pressure is still in place over the eastern part of the country, continuing the trend of 90-plus degree weather with humidity.
Thursday will have more of the same, with a high around 93 degrees at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, and temperatures should be in the upper 80s as the evening session matches begin. Conditions will be dry through Thursday before Hurricane Earl makes its way past the area on Friday. Hurricane Earl's impact will be greatest on eastern Long Island, but Queens could see a tenth to a quarter inch of precipitation with 30-35 mph wind gusts. Friday's effects from Earl will mostly be seen in the afternoon and evening hours, but showers could be seen as early as mid-morning.

Hatteras Island Ordered Evacuated: North Carolina's Dare County has ordered 30,000 residents and visitors to leave the Outer Banks' Hatteras Island as Hurricane Earl approaches.
Officials issued the order Wednesday evening for people in seven villages on the island. Only about 4,800 are permanent residents living from Rodanthe to Hatteras.
Officials had earlier asked only visitors to leave. County spokeswoman Dorothy Toolan says people who choose to stay are being advised they may go without government help and services for up to 72 hours after the hurricane passes.Earl's strongest winds are expected to reach the coast Thursday night into Friday morning.

Direct Hit on Buoy Shows Strength of Earl! Hurricane Earl's southwestern eyewall moved directly over Buoy #41046 overnight, causing the buoy to read 48.6-foot waves (before it stopped reporting*) and wind gusts to 101 mph. Winds calmed considerably and the pressure dropped to 27.82" (942 mb) as the edge of the eye moved over the buoy briefly. It's rare to get an actual surface meteorological sampling from the stronger parts of a hurricane with no land to weaken it. Eyewall hits on buoys are rare, though it's likely the winds would have been even stronger if it were on the Northeast side. Live buoy readings were 47 feet with Hurricane Katrina. See photo:

 

NC Governor Declares State of Emergency: North Carolina's governor has declared a state of emergency as evacuation of the coast ahead of Hurricane Earl continues. Gov. Beverly Perdue issued the declaration during a Wednesday afternoon briefing at the state Emergency Operations Center near the state capital. Earl's strongest winds are expected to reach the coast Thursday night into Friday morning. Perdue warned residents along the Outer Banks to leave those areas immediately. Already, hundreds of cars were backed up in traffic on N.C. Highway 12, the sole link between the fragile barrier islands and the mainland.

Tourists Leave Outer Banks: One by one vacationers drove off the Cedar Island Ferry as they evacuated from Ocracoke.

Rob O'Brien said he was disappointed to leave, but says he wasn't going to stay on the island. "I've seen it in heavy rains and storms and I wasn't going to stay during a hurricane."

Jason Shoup left Ocracoke but said he planned to explore what the rest of North Carolina has to offer.

Some people were actually taking the ferry to Ocracoke if they had goods to haul out to the island. Jim Goodyear was one of them. "We're just going to get over there and help people out with supplies that are going to stay over there."

Heidi Roberts with the NC Ferry System says no one is let on the ferry unless they're hauling goods for the locals that have decided to hunker down in their homes and hang around for the hurricane.

Airlines Wave Change Fee due to Hurricane: Airlines began offering passengers a way to change their tickets as Hurricane Earl threatened to disrupt travel along the East Coast.

Delta Air Lines Inc., the country's biggest airline, said customers traveling to or through several Eastern cities could make one-time changes to their travel schedules without fees. The changes are allowed for people with flights on Thursday or Friday. The waiver covers more than 20 airports, including those in the New York area, Washington, Boston, Baltimore, and Wilmington, N.C.

AirTran Airways said customers traveling through several Eastern cities, including San Juan, Puerto Rico, could change their reservations without penalty. The penalty-free change applies to flights booked for Wednesday through Saturday. AirTran is owned by AirTran Holdings Inc.

Frontier Airlines said travelers scheduled to pass through Newport News, Va. or Raleigh, N.C. between Wednesday and Saturday could change their travel dates without a fee. Customers who have not yet begun their trip could end up paying higher fares in some cases, Frontier said.

LATEST NHC STATEMENT ON TS GASTON: AT 500 PM AST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GASTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.0 WEST. GASTON IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION WITH A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
 

LATEST NHC STATEMENT ON TS FIONA: AT 500 PM AST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FIONA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.9 WEST. FIONA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR. THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING IN THIS DIRECTION AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

RAINFALL...FIONA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES...OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
 

LATEST NHC STATEMENT on EARL: AT 800 PM EDT...THE EYE OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.5 WEST. EARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A TURN TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL APPROACH THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY LATE THURSDAY...AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE
OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS ANTICIPATED THEREAFTER. EARL IS A LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM.THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 941 MB...27.79 INCHES.

WINDS...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OCCURRING BY LATE THURSDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH THE COAST FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO NEW JERSEY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA AND THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY. ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

RAINFALL...ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS FROM EARL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE BAHAMAS AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS.

UPDATE: Massachusetts issues Watches and Advisories. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT:

-- All of Cape Cod
-- Martha's Vineyard
-- Nantucket

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FROM FRIDAY UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY:

-- Coastal Plymouth
-- Coastal Essex
-- Coastal Suffolk
-- Coastal Bristol

UPDATE: Dare County officials have issued a mandatory evacuation for all Hatteras Island visitors, effective immediately. Authorities cite concerns about high waves and ocean overwash on Highway 12, which will make travel dangerous. Officials say the order is only for visitors and does not apply to areas north of Oregon Inlet. The order does not include the towns of Duck, Kill Devil Hills, Kitty Hawk, Nags Head, Southern Shores, Roanoke Island or the mainland of Dare County.

UPDATE: Carteret County, NC officials have issued a state of emergency.
They are calling for the "evacuation of the medically fragile population and low lying areas, manufactured and other fragile housing; particularly South River, North River and areas east of the North River Bridge. This includes all areas subject to sound side flooding."
Carteret County schools will be closed on Thursday and Friday.
Newport Middle School will open as a shelter at noon on Thursday. A special needs shelter will open at Leon Mann Senior Center at 8 a.m. on Thursday.

UPDATE: Buoy measurements from near the eye of Earl: 30 foot waves!!!! The odds that New York City will directly experience tropical storm conditions — sustained winds of 40mph with higher gusts — have risen to one in four. If you’re planning a weekend on the Jersey Shore or in the Hamptons, it’s now a coin toss (50/50). Any unexpected deviation westward from the current projected track could increase these odds dramatically.

Update 6:30 p.m.:  Earl re-gains Cat 4 status.  Gaston forms behind Fiona.

EVACUATION INFO:

The National Hurricane Center upgraded the Hurricane Earl Watch to a Warning at 11 a.m. for the Outer Banks of North Carolina. Evacuation orders are in effect for Ocracoke and Hatteras Islands.

The N.C. Division of Emergency Management is working with local emergency managers to respond to the Hurricane Earl Warning. Ferry Services is running extra routes from Ocracoke for evacuations. All other ferry service is on normal operations. An emergency shelter is open in Pitt County at North Pitt High School in Bethel.

This is a crucial time for people living in storm-surge zones and in flood plains. Those ordered to evacuate must do so immediately. Evacuation routes will become congested, causing traffic to move slowly. Law enforcement officials will be assigned to evacuation zones to secure private property and the safety of evacuees.

People living in vulnerable areas, such as storm-surge zones, flood plains, mobile homes and camper or RV parks, should evacuate now. If Hurricane Earl worsens, additional people may be ordered to evacuate. Residents living in an area that does not seem safe should leave that area now, even if an evacuation has not yet been ordered. Your safety could be in jeopardy.

Residents who are told to evacuate must do so immediately. Hurricane Earl is expected to pass east of the Bahamas tonight and continue its path toward the North Carolina coast on Thursday.

As Earl continues to move NW towards the Outer Banks, Cape Cod and much of New England are also in its path.  It's unusual for Cape Cod to be hit by a tropical system.  It's brushed every 5 years, but it gets hit directly only once every 45 years or so.

The only evacuations ordered were on Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands, part of the Outer Banks. Just a light breeze was stirring and there wasn't a cloud in the sky along the Outer Banks - a ribbon of barrier islands a dozen miles or more off the mainland, connected to the rest of the world by a couple of bridges and a ferry. Along the lone highway, hundreds of cars backed up at one of the bridges.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE EYE HAS BECOME VERY
DISTINCT...WITH OJECTIVE T-NUMBERS OSCILLATING AROUND 6.0 FOR THE
PAST FEW HOURS. AN AIR FORCE PLANE MEASURED FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF
138 KNOTS AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 941 MB IN THE LAST FIX.
HOWEVER...SFMR MEASUREMENTS WERE A LITTLE LOWER. A COMPROMISE OF
THESE DATA SUPPORTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS.
HOWEVER...EARL COULD FLUCTUATE IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT REACHES
COOLER WATERS AND MOVES INTO HIGHER SHEAR BEYOND 36 HOURS. BY DAY 5
THE HURRICANE SHOULD HAVE BEEN ABSORBED BY A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE WELL NORTH OF CANADA.

HURRICANE EARL IS FORECAST TO TRACK JUST OFFSHORE OF CAPE
HATTERAS. WHEN MAKING DECISIONS DO NOT FOCUS ON THE CENTER OF THE
TRACK. TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL EXTEND WELL
AWAY THE STORM WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO COASTAL
LOCATIONS IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. IN ADDITION...THE EXACT
FORECAST TRACK IS SUBJECT TO SHIFT. DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE
STORM AND PROXIMITY TO THE COAST...EVEN A SMALL CHANGE IN TRACK
COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT CONDITIONS IN EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA.

WINDS WILL INCREASE TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE BETWEEN 5 PM THURSDAY
AND MIDNIGHT FRIDAY ACROSS THE WARNED AREA...LOCATIONS ON THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS OVER 50 KT BY MIDNIGHT
WITH GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE LIKELY. HEAVY RAINFALL OF 3 TO
4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE CENTER TRACK OF THE STORM
ALONG DOWNEAST CARTERET COUNTY AND THE OUTER BANKS. RAINFALL WILL
DECREASE TO AROUND AN INCH IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE WARNED
LOACTIONS.

SIGNIFICANT SWELLS WILL BRING AN HIGH RISK OF STRONG RIP CURRENTS
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. LARGE BREAKING WAVES ARE ALSO LIKELY
PEAKING BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS. STORM
SURGE OF 2 TO 4 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG AREA BEACHES AND COMBINED
WITH THE LARGE WAVE RUN UP WILL CAUSE SIGNIFCANT EROSION AND
OVERWASH ISSUES.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE EARL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.3 WEST. EARL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH ON
THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL
APPROACH THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY LATE THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 135 MPH...215
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS AGAIN A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE LIKELY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING
TREND IS ANTICIPATED THEREAFTER.

EARL IS STILL A LARGE HURRICANE AND GROWING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE A FEW HOURS AGO WAS 941 MB...27.79 INCHES.

 

4:42 PM UPDATE: Tropical Storm Gaston forms in the tropical Atlantic! maximum winds at 40mph. Still 1,000 miles west of Leeward Islands.

3:30 UPDATE: Fiona now hitting the northern Leeward Islands. Tropical Depression #9 will soon be named Gaston! Still too early to tell exactly where Earl will go. Will he hit the Carolina Coast? It all depends on the cold front that is over Lake Michigan and how fast that front moves to the east coast. The front will act like a pumper and turn Earl toward the northeast. If the front slows down, then Earl will track closer to the coast Thursday and Friday.

The front will also merge with Earl over New England on Friday. That will likely cause heavy rain and Thunderstorms all the way west into the Green and White Mountains and the Poconos. Travelers to New England Friday need to exercise caution!
 

2 p.m. Wednesday Update:

AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.7 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH ON
THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WELL EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AND WILL APPROACH THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY LATE
THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. HOWEVER...PRELIMINARY DATA FROM
AN AIR FORCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE HURRICANE IS BEGINNING TO
STRENGTHEN AND EARL COULD AGAIN BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE
LATER TODAY.

EARL IS A LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 941 MB...27.79 INCHES.
 

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Hurricane EARL Public Advisory
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US Watch/Warning Storm Surge

000
WTNT32 KNHC 011744
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 29A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
200 PM EDT WED SEP 01 2010

...LARGE HURRICANE EARL CONTINUES RELENTLESSLY TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST...POSES A THREAT TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.7N 72.7W
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM E OF ABACO ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS
ABOUT 680 MI...1095 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SAN SALVADOR ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS
HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN
DELAWARE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FROM CAPE FEAR TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA.

 

1 p.m. Wednesday Update:

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES FROM BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS.

THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ADJUSTED NORTHWARD AND NOW EXTENDS FROM
THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER NORTHWARD TO CAPE HENLOPEN
DELAWARE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM CAPE FEAR TO WEST OF
BOGUE INLET.

 

11 a.m. Wednesday Update:

Hurricane Earl weakened to a Category 3 storm this morning.  It is currently located 725 miles SE of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, moving to the northwest at 17 mph.  Winds are clocked at 125 mph.  Earl will continue on a northwesterly track today, turning well east of the Bahamas. 

By Thursday evening, windy conditions will reach the Outer Banks of North Carolina.  A Hurricane Warning has been issued from Bogue Inlet, North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border.  A Hurricane Watch is in effect from the North Carolina/Virginia border to Cape Henlopen, Delaware.  The entire East Coast will be affected by high surf and rip currents this holiday weekend.

8 a.m. Wednesday Update:

AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.6 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST THEREAFTER. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF THE
HURRICANE WILL BE PASSING WELL EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS
TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND COULD APPROACH THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY
FRIDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

EARL IS A LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY A NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 943 MB...27.85 INCHES.

 

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO PARRAMORE ISLAND
VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN SALVADOR ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST FROM CAPE FEAR TO SURF CITY

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

_______________

11pm Tuesday UPDATE: Computer models differ on Earl's path. Little has changed since the last discussion. Hurricane Earl is located 1000 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. Earl continues on a Northwesterly track moving about 12 mph. A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for an area from Surf City, North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border with a Tropical Storm Watch in effect from Cape Fear to Surf City (North Carolina). It is likely that over the course of the next 24 to 48 hours watches and warnings will be extended along much of the eastern seaboard.

The latest afternoon Power of 5 forecast model is still left of the official National Hurricane Center track by about 90 miles. This would bring the center of Earl over the Outer Banks on Friday. Other computer forecasts keep Earl off shore. Little, if any change either in the array of Hurricane models . All are still fairly tight with NHC looking to favor the GFDL model. Little if any argument given the current flow and forecast synoptic overview. NHC still keeping the track of Earl just offshore. The only tweak on the track will be relative to the speed of an approaching trough from the west, currently over the Northern Plains. If the trough moves a little slower, then the Power of 5 forecast looks good. A little faster and Earl will be to the right of the NHC forecast track.

Still some shear with a weak trough just to the west of the center of circulation (along the eastern coast) and over the past few hours, satellite shows some slight filling. This trough, over the next 24 hours, will continue to weaken ergo, shear will diminish, Earl should not strengthen much more with the current models keep the maximum gusts to around 140 mph, however, with the expected weaker shear and slight increase in outflow, winds increasing to a stronger Category 4 is not out of the question.

Even if Earl remains just offshore, there will be problems along the Outer Banks and the inland tidal rivers/sounds of North Carolina with flooding and tidal surges. Hurricane force winds will likely be tight around the center of circulation with the Outer Banks likely to bare the brunt of this and tropical storm force winds inland to about 40-60 miles.

9pm Tuesday UPDATE: Dangerous Earl moves northeast toward the Carolinas.

AT 900 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.1 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST THEREAFTER. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF
HURRICANE EARL WILL BE MOVING OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC...PASSING WELL
EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TONIGHT AND
NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS TOMORROW.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

EARL IS A LARGE CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 940 MB...27.76 INCHES. WINDS...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLY AFFECTING THE
VICINITY OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY IMPROVE IN THESE ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY.

STORM SURGE...ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND FOR THE TURK AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 69.1W
ABOUT 125 MI...235 KM ENE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 835 MI...1545 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA
BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
* CAPE FEAR TO SURF CITY

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

INTERESTS FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF EARL. 

5pm Tuesday UPDATE: Hurricane Watch for US East Coast from Wilmington, NC to Virginia border...Hurricane Earl churning northwestward near the Bahamas, passing well east of Turks and Caicos Islands... 

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.8 WEST. EARL IS NOW MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST THEREAFTER. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF
HURRICANE EARL WILL BE MOVING OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC...PASSING WELL
EAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TONIGHT AND NORTHEAST OF THE
BAHAMAS TOMORROW.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ALTHOUGH SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE LIKELY...EARL IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN CATEGORY FOUR
STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

EARL IS A LARGE CYCLONE AND THE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 940 MB...27.76 INCHES. WINDS...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLY AFFECTING THE
VICINITY OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY IMPROVE IN THESE ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY.

STORM SURGE...ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS TODAY.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE STILL
POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE U. S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO
TODAY. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM OF 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND
FOR THE TURK AND CAICOS ISLANDS. HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES FROM NORTH OF SURF CITY TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING
THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
NORTHEASTWARD TO SURF CITY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SURF CITY TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO
AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
* CAPE FEAR TO SURF CITY

INTERESTS FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

2 p.m. Tuesday Hurricane Earl Update:

AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.5 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR BUT A GRADUAL TURN
TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE EARL WILL BE MOVING OVER THE OPEN
ATLANTIC EAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY
ARE LIKELY BUT EARL IS FORECAST TO RETAIN CATEGORY FOUR STATUS FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200
MILES...325 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 940 MB...27.76 INCHES.
 

1 p.m. Tuesday Hurricane Earl Update:

AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.9 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR BUT A GRADUAL TURN
TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE EARL WILL MOVE OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC
EAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY
ARE LIKELY BUT EARL IS FORECAST TO RETAIN CATEGORY FOUR STATUS FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200
MILES...325 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 939 MB...27.73 INCHES.
 

9 a.m. Tuesday Hurricane Earl Update:

AT 900 AM AST...1300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.6 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH THE NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM PUERTO
RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS MORNING...AND MOVE OVER THE OPEN
ATLANTIC EAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH
ARE LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200
MILES...325 KM.

THE LATEST ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR
FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 935 MB...27.61 INCHES.
_________________________

7 a.m. Tuesday Hurricane Earl Update:

AT 700 AM AST...1100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.2 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH THE NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL WILL MOVE AWAY FROM PUERTO AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS MORNING...AND CROSS THE OPEN ATLANTIC EAST OF
THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH
ARE LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200
MILES...325 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 931 MB...27.49 INCHES.

____________________________

11pm UPDATE: Earl still a category 4 storm.

AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.8 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
EARL WILL PASS WELL NORTH OF PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT...AND PASS EAST
OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. 

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200
MILES...325 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 938 MB...27.70 INCHES.
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.9N 65.8W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM N OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS

INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

 

10 pm UPDATE: Forecasts call for Earl to approach Category 5 strength. Current forecasts call for sustained winds inside Hurricane Earl to intensify to near 150 mph by 5pm Tuesday. Wind gust should top 165 mph. That would make earl a very strong Category 4 Hurricane. Category 5 Hurricanes have sustained winds above 155 mph. Stay tuned!

9pm UPDATE: Earl pulling away from the Virgin Islands - AT 900 PM AST...0100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.5 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
EARL WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT AND PASS EAST
OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200
MILES...325 KM. SAINT THOMAS RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 58
MPH...93 KM/HR.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 938 MB...27.70 INCHES.

NHC SUMMARY OF 900 PM AST...0100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 65.5W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM NNE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS

 

7:30pm UPDATE: Great shot of Earl's eye - Take alook at this radar image from San Juan, Puerto Rico. Note the eye of Hurricane Earl in the top right corner of the image. Earl is still moving north-northwest at 15 mph and is packing winds of 135 mph! 

5:30pm UPDATE: Fiona newest Tropical Storm.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FIONA WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.7 WEST. FIONA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 24 MPH...39 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON WEDNESDAY. ON
THIS TRACK...FIONA COULD BE NEAR OR JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

5pm UPDATE:  Hurricane Earl strengthens to a Category 4 Hurricane...maximum sustained winds @ 135 mph.

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.7 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
EARL WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT AND PASS EAST
OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 135 MPH...215
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200
MILES...325 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES.
THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE
WARNING WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANGUILLA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICAN ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANGUILLA
* PUERTO RICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

 

Monday Afternoon UPDATE: Hurricane Earl

Eye of Hurricane Earl passing just west of the British Virgin Islands.

At 3pm, Atlantic Standard Time (AST), the center of Hurricane Earl was located just northwest of Anengada island, British Virgin Islands. Earl is moving toward the west-northwest @ 15mph. This general motion is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Tuesday. 

According to the Nationa Huuricane Center, MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
MILES...295 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB...28.20 INCHES.

WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE
NORTHERN VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER
ELEVATED TERRAIN IN PUERTO RICO.

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO
5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE WIND WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...AND 1 TO 3 FEET IN
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES.

RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...
ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE
WARNING WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANGUILLA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICAN ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANGUILLA
* PUERTO RICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS