Election outcome will impact holiday mood, spending; consumers aren't thinking about holidays yet

CLEVELAND - With the presidential election looming, and millions of Americans trying to piece their lives back together following the devastation of Hurricane Sandy, it's easy to understand why many consumers haven't begun to think seriously about the upcoming winter holidays.

But the clock is ticking.

Black Friday is just three weeks away. And, in the first of our series of annual holiday polls, it appears as if the outcome of Tuesday's General Election could play a significant role in peoples' outlook and willingness to dig into their wallets.

According to a Consumer Reports survey, one-third of American adults surveyed between Oct. 25 and Oct. 28 expect to be more cheerful this holiday season than last year.

That's the good news.

That joy and optimism could fade quickly depending on the results of the race for president. Hence, the bad news: 31 percent expect this season to be glum if the candidate they support loses.

Moreover, 31 percent of those who responded expect the election outcome to have at least some effect on their holiday spending; 17 percent indicated that the results will have "a lot" of impact on how much they spend.

The survey also showed a nationally representative telephone poll of 1,013 adults age 18 and over, reveals a cautious population still licking its wounds from years of economic woes. Around 30 percent of gift-givers said they plan to spend less this season versus 2011. Only 20 percent intend to increase spending (though that figure is up 5 percentage points from who said so at this time last year).

Whether people spend more or less this year won't hinge as much on who wins the race for the nation's chief executive, rather by consumers' perception of the state of the economy and gas prices. Those are the two most influential factors, according to the survey.

Half of respondents cited gas prices and the economy as the variables most likely to affect spending; 36 percent cited concern about job security.

Nearly 193 million adults plan to participate in the holiday shopping frenzy this year. In 2011, the average amount spent was $514.